Context here: https://x.com/pmarca/status/1748838062921306262?s=61

The admission must come in calendar year 2024. If the strongest case for “yes” is an organization or person that says something to the effect of “this is real, and we’ve already taken it into account. Our views are unchanged.”, then this market will resolve to “No”. The definition of major will be up to my own discretion, but feel free to make arguments in the comments. I will not bet on this market.