Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2026, credible reporting or official investigative disclosures confirm that U.S. Representative Haley Stevens (or an affiliated entity under her direction) received direct financial compensation, an explicit quid pro quo payment, or monetary consideration in exchange for endorsing Republican candidate Mike Rogers in the Michigan U.S. Senate race.

Standard campaign contributions made to her campaign committee or leadership PAC in the ordinary course of politics do not qualify unless established by an official investigative finding (such as the Federal Election Commission, House Ethics Committee, or Department of Justice) or verified mainstream investigative reporting to be an illegal or direct payment specifically contingent upon her endorsement.

Credible sources include major consensus news outlets (such as the Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, or Wall Street Journal) or official government reports from bodies such as the Federal Election Commission or House Committee on Ethics.

If no credible confirmation of financial payment for the endorsement is published by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the market resolves to NO.

Background

On November 1, 2026, two days before the general election, Democratic Representative Haley Stevens announced her endorsement of Republican nominee Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S. Senate race. The cross-party endorsement followed an escalating dispute with Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, who narrowly defeated Stevens in the Democratic primary earlier that year. Stevens stated her decision was driven by personal and political friction after being told she was no longer welcome in El-Sayed's campaign. The unexpected move drew sharp condemnation from Democratic leadership and sparked online speculation regarding underlying motivations.

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