Will the Suez Canal be closed for a full week for any reason by the end of 2024?
Plus
18
Ṁ1450Jan 1
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves Yes once the Suez is inoperable or closed for seven consecutive days. Resolves No at market closure otherwise.
There have been multiple past closures of varying lengths: https://www.businessinsider.com/the-suez-canal-blocked-and-closed-several-times-since-opening-2021-3?amp
Currently, the Israel-Palestine conflict and its satellite conflicts threaten to cause another:
https://apnews.com/article/red-sea-yemen-houthis-attack-ships-f67d941c260528ac40315ecab4c34ca3
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
How long will the Suez Canal be closed between now and the end of 2024?
In what months will the Suez Canal be closed for any amount of time?
Will the Panama Canal be closed for at least 24 hours in 2024 due to a man-made disaster?
13% chance
Will Saudi–Egypt Causeway be open to public by 2040?
64% chance
Will the Kerch Strait Rail Bridge (rail bridge from Russia to Crimea) be rendered inoperable in 2024?
17% chance
Will the Kerch Strait Road Bridge (road bridge from Russia to Crimea) be rendered inoperable in 2024?
19% chance
Will the blockade on Gaza end before 2026?
38% chance
[Metaculus] Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?
10% chance
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by the end of 2026?
56% chance
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by the end of 2024?
15% chance