Will the Suez Canal be closed for a full week for any reason by the end of 2024?
Will the Suez Canal be closed for a full week for any reason by the end of 2024?
21
1kṀ3471resolved Dec 31
Resolved
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Resolves Yes once the Suez is inoperable or closed for seven consecutive days. Resolves No at market closure otherwise.
There have been multiple past closures of varying lengths: https://www.businessinsider.com/the-suez-canal-blocked-and-closed-several-times-since-opening-2021-3?amp
Currently, the Israel-Palestine conflict and its satellite conflicts threaten to cause another:
https://apnews.com/article/red-sea-yemen-houthis-attack-ships-f67d941c260528ac40315ecab4c34ca3
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What is Manifold?
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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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