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I've been thinking about this and I feel pretty comfortable resolving it to NO. However will discuss with the team first to make sure we are all on the same page on how we want to handle markets like this that have a seemingly obvious resolution but the specified source hasnt come out yet. Will make a final decision and either open the market so funds arent locked or resolve it.

@SirSalty Resolving NO based on all current evidence (and if it does turn out to be YES we can still payout Pluff). Going forward we will try to avoid markets having specific resolution sources that have unknown timelines (we may still have them with a backup source in place).

Does this market wait for all of the official NWS tropical cyclone reports for 2024 to resolve? If so, should the market be extended?

@OracleAtWiFi I would be open to extending through January 31st if holders are skeptical; @traders feel free to comment here if you think this is still up in the air. Right now it doesn't look like either major hurricane this season will come within 10 billion of the threshhold, so I will by default resolve No on January 1st.

@Panfilo I'm a NO holder and extending seems fair to me. Ofc I'm also happy if this resolves sooner :)

@Panfilo never really opposed to waiting for more time so its even more clear, especially now that loans are back again! but yes seems extremely unlikely anything changes

@mods could the status of this market be clarified? Should it be resolved like the mana market was to no? Will it be extended to wait for the NWS report to come out?

@OracleAtWiFi Mods don't resolve or clarify sweepstakes markets (the exception being that a couple have the power to resolve completely unambiguous ones). For this, ask @SirSalty

Does the 150 include loss of economic output or just direct damage

@ChrisMillsc5f7 It's however the federal government summarizes the damage through official channels, which historically has been direct damage. We want to be able to compare the result to past Hurricanes like Katrina's official government total.

Should this resolve based on the estimate by NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information) rather than NWS? Or uh, possibly NOAA as a parent organization of them both. Somewhat nitpicky but it seems likely NWS will never actually publish a damage report and some other portion of NOAA will instead.

@Fay42 I have pinned a post I made 12 days ago basically saying that we will be liberal with a Yes within this kind of range.

@Panfilo oh thanks I missed that!

Seems like there's arbitrage here https://manifold.markets/thepurplebull/will-hurricane-milton-be-the-costli

https://www.artemis.bm/news/hurricane-milton-losses-could-amount-to-tens-of-billions-but-uncertainty-high-bms-siffert/
Siffert of insurance and reinsurance broking group BMS explained, “Forecast models show uncertainty in Milton’s exact landfall, but its intense winds, possible Category 5 strength later tomorrow, and weakening but widening wind field raise concerns about immense industry losses.

“The damages have the potential to be between $10 billion to $100 billion depending on the wide range of scenarios that now heavily depend on track and intensity forecasts at landfall.”

In an edge case where two hurricanes are attributed an aggregate damage of 300+ billion, this market will resolve Yes even if information about which hurricane caused which damage is forthcoming/disputed. Likewise for 3 hurricanes and 450 billion, etc.

@Panfilo Edit: Nevermind, I see your intention now.

So I don't get caught out, can we get a clear ruling on whether you would accept the Accuweather estimates as "damages" under your definition (even though it includes economic losses etc)? (I don't think this makes sense but I have to check).

@parhizj No, we're focusing on the government total for the sake of comparison to past totals. The spirit of the market is that we do want to resolve though, so if there is some change to what branch of the state announces damage estimates (ie. if they change the name of the NWS website or have the department of agriculture post it first for some reason) then I would likely use that for resolution, as long as it appeared to be mostly in continuity with how hurricanes like Katrina were analyzed by the state.

Some models are now showing Tropical Storm Milton as a major hurricane into Tampa. This would be very likely to exceed $150 billion in damage if the scenario occurs

@SaviorofPlant Yeah, HMON has it going just north but very early still. If it lands in Tampa that might get to $200 billion; storm surge would be horrific.

isn’t it too early for this? Track uncertainty looks low from GEFS but this might be deceptive until the storm organizes more… Storm surge models don’t even look this far out

Edit.. maybe by tomorrow?

@parhizj Yes, very early still. HMON has been very good this year, so using as example of how powerful it could be.

@ScottSupak

@SaviorofPlant Re Tampa bay… 1921 was closer fit track wise but both came from the Caribbean rather than the GoM

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/lib1/nhclib/mwreviews/1921.pdf

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/lib1/nhclib/mwreviews/1946.pdf

@SaviorofPlant

I take it back that it's too early to speculate if professional Meteorologists are doing it already..

When I checked the tide predictions earlier today, it looks like the landfall timing could make up a difference of up to~ 3 feet. Still a lot of uncertainty in the ensemble tracks though.