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Which will be released first: Claude 3.5 Opus or Claude 4.0 Sonnet?
32
Ṁ100Ṁ2k
resolved May 22
100%99.0%
4.0 Sonnet
1.0%
3.5 Opus

This market resolves when Anthropic publicly releases (not announces) either Claude 3.5 Opus or Claude 4.0 Sonnet. If neither are released in 2025, the market resolves N/A.

  • Update 2025-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that resolution will be based on the exact model names as specified in the market question (i.e., 'Claude 3.5 Opus' or 'Claude 4.0 Sonnet').

    • A model released with a different name, such as 'Claude 3.7 Opus', would not count as 'Claude 3.5 Opus' for the purposes of this market.

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What happens if they release Claude 3.7 Opus first? Does that count as releasing Claude 3.5 Opus? (I would think it should, with the idea that it's in the 3.5+ family, but not sure if that's how you're intending it.)

@rogs no, I'm sticking with the naming as specified.

Naming stands as originally specified.

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