Which will be released first: Claude 3.5 Opus or Claude 4.0 Sonnet?
32
100Ṁ1970resolved May 22
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
100%99.0%
4.0 Sonnet
1.0%
3.5 Opus
This market resolves when Anthropic publicly releases (not announces) either Claude 3.5 Opus or Claude 4.0 Sonnet. If neither are released in 2025, the market resolves N/A.
Update 2025-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that resolution will be based on the exact model names as specified in the market question (i.e., 'Claude 3.5 Opus' or 'Claude 4.0 Sonnet').
A model released with a different name, such as 'Claude 3.7 Opus', would not count as 'Claude 3.5 Opus' for the purposes of this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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