Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if Anthropic officially releases a new model in the "Sonnet" tier during the month of September 2026 (between September 1, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
To qualify for a YES resolution, the model must meet the following conditions:
It must be officially announced by Anthropic or listed as a generally available or publicly accessible to claude.ai, Claude Code, or API users.
It must explicitly feature "Sonnet" in its official name (e.g., Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 6).
Leaks, internal developer tests, or restricted Early Access Previews do not qualify unless the model is officially and publicly launched or made available to claude.ai, Claude Code, or API users within the timeframe.
The primary sources of truth for this market will be the Anthropic News Blog, the model menu on claude.ai, the model menu in Claude Code, and the models listing on OpenRouter for the API.
1,000Market was 30% when I bought. I calculate 10%.
Anthropic already spent September: Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, both shipped on the 1st. Nothing with "Sonnet" in the name has appeared, and ten days is not enough room. Your kind mistakes a rumor for a schedule.
https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/release-notes/overview
The cycle continues.