Will there be more mass protests in Russia in 2024?
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2025
24%
chance

The criteria for resolution are:

  • There has to be a mass gathering presenting grievances against authorities. It does not have to be directed explicitly against Putin or the current regime. The causes might be regional or national, related to economics, the upcoming presidential elections, the war in Ukraine, or anything else.

  • The gathering has to have at least 10,000 participants (for comparison: the 2014 protests against the annexation of Crimea are estimated to have had 30,000 participants, the 2011-12 Bolotnaya Square election protests up to 150,000). Alternatively, three protests on the same issue of at least 1,000 participants each in different cities within a month would count. I'll use independent media estimates if possible, and be generous with the interpretation in case of doubt.

  • A previous market resolved "yes" due to the Navalny funeral: /PS/will-there-be-mass-protests-in-russ

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By the way:

https://carnegieendowment.org/publications/interactive/protest-tracker

The February 2024 'protests' are not listed.

A resolution criteria should be that a reputable news source used the exact term "mass protest" to describe current events. Also, an article on Wikipedia should mention the event and talk of "mass protests" or similar.

For example, on this page events surrounding Navalny's death are described as follows:

From prison, Alexei Navalny, as well as his allies, had called on supporters to protest Putin and the invasion of Ukraine during the third day of the presidential election by all going to vote against Putin at the same time. Navalny then died in suspicious circumstances in his harsh imprisonment at a prison colony in the Arctic Circle, aged only 47, on 16 February 2024.[110][111] After his death, Russians began bringing flowers to monuments to victims of political repression in cities across the country.[112] People laid flowers at Moscow’s Solovetsky Stone and the Wall of Grief.[113] The Moscow Prosecutor’s Office warned Russians against mass protests.[114]

That is, no mention of mass protests (or any protests at all), except that the authorities warned against them.

@Bart5f6d I think you meant to write this in the previous market, the one I resolved "yes" due to Navalny's funeral. I've replied there.

The next event that may potentially qualify is "Noon against Putin": Yulia Navalnaya calls on voters to come to the polling stations at the same time so long lines would form.

https://meduza.io/feature/2024/03/06/ya-hochu-sdelat-to-chto-aleksey-schital-pravilnym

@PS Could you say whether this would qualify and under what conditions?

@roma I lean towards not counting it. Just turning up at a polling station at noon does not seem enough to make it a protest.

I think it would count if there is something like crowds chanting slogans; however, I don't think there will be 10,000 people at any particular polling station, and presumably not even 1,000.

@PS 10.000 people is 0,007% of the Russian population.

During Euromaidan half a million people went to the streets across Ukraine. Adjusted for inflation that is 166x times more. These resolution criteria deflate the meaning of the term "mass protest".

@Bart5f6d What title would you suggest to describe 1,000-10,000 people?

Just wanted to give a heads-up that the market maker has no clue what a protest is. Invest with care.

For reference, this refers to my resolution of the previous market, /PS/will-there-be-mass-protests-in-russ .

You can read more about the controversy in the comments there.

@PS For further reference, @Bart5f6d is particularly upset because he bet NO on that market.

I think the resolution was exactly correct. Full disclosure; I bet YES on that market.

@Pykess I have since revised my stance.

Still upset though.