Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov said in an interview that Russia plans a new major offensive by the anniversary of the start of the invasion, February 24th. Will that indeed be the case?
Obviously, it's hart to provide specific resolution criteria, but a major attempt by Russia to take territory they do not control at the moment will have to start by or on February 24, 2023.
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Resolving "yes". A major Russian offensive was mentioned by the NATO Secretary General as well as pretty much every major media outlet (e.g. the Economist, CNBC, WSJ...)
The results seem to be underwhelming, at least so far and in terms of any territorial gains, but it's an offensive nonetheless.
In today's conference, the NATO Secretary General said he considers the major Russian offensive to already have started.
@NickelChen At the very least, I've heard the suggestion that there this is the beginning of an offensive. What source are you looking at for the losses?
@PS The Ukrainian Army's published numbers went drastically up the last couple days. The Videos coming out of Vuhledar also show great losses of materiel I haven't seen in a long time.
@NickelChen I don't think UA numbers are necessarily reliable, and am not enough of an expert to compare losses of materiel visually.
I think I'll keep the market open until the due date anyway, and resolve based on reputable media/analyst reports (here's one arguing that there have been no changes over the past week: https://rochanconsulting.substack.com/p/ukraine-conflict-monitor-30-january)
@PS I don't think that Ukrainian numbers are that reliable. But they are helpful to see a general trend. And I believe there is a upwards trend in Russian losses. We might witness a Russian offensive that is being ground down by Ukrainian defenses so far.
Russia planning major offensive to mark first anniversary of war: Ukraine defence minister
Note, though, that he has not been the most reliable of sources.