Will Russian forces take Toretsk before the end of 2024?
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16
Ṁ1870
Jan 8
50%
chance

Resolves to YES if there is broad consensus that the armed forces of Russia control all of Toretsk within its official administrative limits, for at least 24 consecutive hours, at any point before the end of 2024.

If that has not happened by the 1st of January, 2025 (local time), it resolves to NO. In case there is any ambiguity at that point as to whether the town is fully under Russian control or contested, a delay of 7 days will be added to ascertain what the exact status of the town was on the last 24 hours of 2024.

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These are the town's administrative limits according to Google Maps, which is what I'll use for the purposes of this question.

@AlexandreK what map will you use to resolve?

@AlexandreK also: I assume you are going for Full Russian control. Meaning that any amount of Ukrainian resistance inside the towns administrative limits on Jan 8th will lead to "NO"?

@Schwabilismus It will resolve to yes if there is broad consensus. If DeepState acknowledges it, since it's now affiliated with the Ukrainian MoD, that will be enough, but otherwise it would require multiple independent mapping projects agreeing.

And yes, it would be full Russian control, so if there's a single house remaining under Ukrainian control at the end of 2024, it will resolve to no.