Resolves to YES if there is broad consensus that the armed forces of Russia control all of Toretsk within its official administrative limits, for at least 24 consecutive hours, at any point before the end of 2024.
If that has not happened by the 1st of January, 2025 (local time), it resolves to NO. In case there is any ambiguity at that point as to whether the town is fully under Russian control or contested, a delay of 7 days will be added to ascertain what the exact status of the town was on the last 24 hours of 2024.
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@IB Sorry, sort of forgot about this market! Thank you for the reminder. I'm not aware of any source claiming that Toretsk is under full Russian control, so I feel safe resolving this to "no".
Superposing the image from @AlexandreK 's comment and the latest from today's liveuamap.com looks like this.
@IB @Jwags thanks for the additional sources. I find often that deep state tends to minimize the potential extent of Russian advances, while liveua has poor resolution on front lines. As a compromise I often use ukrdaily or rondelli (above). https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=48.397330&lng=37.841411&z=12&d=20076&c=1&l=0
@Shifbru deep state does not minimize advances of Russians. they only update the map when they have enough verified info
@AlexandreK also: I assume you are going for Full Russian control. Meaning that any amount of Ukrainian resistance inside the towns administrative limits on Jan 8th will lead to "NO"?
@Schwabilismus It will resolve to yes if there is broad consensus. If DeepState acknowledges it, since it's now affiliated with the Ukrainian MoD, that will be enough, but otherwise it would require multiple independent mapping projects agreeing.
And yes, it would be full Russian control, so if there's a single house remaining under Ukrainian control at the end of 2024, it will resolve to no.