An Il-76 airplane has crashed in Russia's 

it was transporting over 60 Ukrainian prisoners. Some Ukrainian media initially said it was "the work of the Ukrainan [forces]", but then withdrew/redacted the claim.

Will it be clear that Ukraine was responsible for the downing? I will resolve yes in case of an official Ukrainian confirmation, no in case Russia withdraws the allegation, and to (Western) media/expert consensus otherwise. If the answer is not clear by the end of the year, I will either resolve N/A or extend the deadline.

This is based on the market's 'media/expert consensus' criteria, citing specific media and intelligence reports. The creator is allowing a one-week period for any objections before finalizing the resolution. Please see the linked comment for details.