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MANIFOLD
Will Threads reach at least 125M users before August 1st?
9
Ṁ190Ṁ14k
resolved Aug 1
Resolved
NO

The outcome of this question will be resolved according to data from the "Threads Historical User Counts" table on Quiver Quantitative :
https://www.quiverquant.com/threadstracker/

If the last historical update from July 31st is less than 125M and the first update from August 1st is more than 125M the question will resolve as NO even if it is reported elsewhere that Threads crossed the 200M threshold before August 1st.

If Quiver Quantitative reports 125M in historical data corresponding to a datetime prior to August 1st, the question will resolve as YES even if it is reported elsewhere that Threads did not hit this threshold (e.g. if it was rounded up on the reporting website).

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predictedNO

@nickten looks like you were right about 120M

predictedYES

it's not over yet, there's still the "weekend effect" ahead 😣

it's tracking for 120m at best. this should be below 5%, common now you cowards!

predictedNO

@nickten

Comedy Trick GIF by CBS

@nickten Done for you :)

“It is vain for the coward to flee; death follows close behind; it is only by defying it that the brave escape.” – Voltaire

predictedNO

@nickten

"Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd."
-Voltaire

predictedNO

@SirCryptomind "A wise man changes his mind, a fool never will" - Icelandic Proverb

predictedYES

Tracking towards 125m-126m right now

Seth Meyers Sarcasm GIF by Late Night with Seth Meyers
predictedNO

@SirCryptomind i see tracking for 123m but i eat crayons

predictedNO

@nickten haha time to test people's convictions :)

@SirCryptomind My predictions didn't age well

https://fortune.com/2023/07/18/threads-loses-half-active-users-mark-zuckerberg/

Threads has reportedly lost half of its active users in just a week as Zuckerberg claims ‘10s of millions now come back daily’
“The focus for the rest of the year is improving the basics and retention,” Zuckerberg said. “It’ll take time to stabilize, but once we nail that then we’ll focus on growing the community.”

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