https://manifold.markets/stats
An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ8,968 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,969 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,437 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1,206 | |
| 5 | Ṁ666 |
suggested by @nickten
In case you weren't sick of these markets yet. Given the spread between the 1300 and 1400 market, here is a market for 1350. Let's see whose models is most precise ;)
@nobody the above hash is I think 1326 (will prove when I'm not at the pub), and the reality came in at 1315 or so. We should have the exact number by the hour.
@chrisjbillington Here's proof I was predicting 1326 at the time of the above comment:
echo "8cb592ed63931163 1326" | sha256sum -
0d5695abe86479d5526dba7fd932e4ba09c2345b0a5fd5143d2f6d19591195d5 -Came in slightly below expectations.
@nobody tomorrow I'm gonna drop like a rock in my league. this is climbing too damn fast
@parhizj just wait till tomorrow. I'm going down and down to shadow realm :"""""""""""")
@nobody, @PC also bet on Aug. 22 in @FlorisvanDoorn 's market for which day. I can't predict the numbers right but this is beyond my cutoff of where I'm betting.
@chrisjbillington I guess I'm f***ed 🙃 I get from this that you guys are doing some math stuff to predict these markets? That's really interesting.
@Denial Most of the numbers I've been commenting aren't predictions per se, they're just calculations of the engagement metric once the data (accessed via the API) is already in after midnight pacific time each day. The only reason they aren't perfect is because they don't include data from private markets (at least I think that's why).
But there's more potential profit to be had trying to predict a few days in advance, so I am doing some extremely sophisticated mathematical modelling to try to gamble on the future too. I'll reveal the secret sauce once this is over so people can see how smart and/or dumb I am (depending on how my bets pan out in the coming days 😬).
@chrisjbillington can you say whether you are collecting bets/comments/questions for the entire user base or only a sample?
@chrisjbillington Well no matter how dumb your bets are, I must be dumber for not seeing it lol good luck! I'm all in at this point so I guess if I fail today I'll get back to my good old risk averse predicting. Looking forward for the secret sauce.
@parhizj I'm downloading all activity (comments, markets, and bets) in the relevant time period, so it includes all users who were active.