IMPORTANT: only resolved markets count
This is a follow-on market after this market.
Scoring:
1st place = 50%
2nd place = 30%
3rd place = 15%
4th place = 5%
It is a contest to see which top trader will have the highest profit in a single market in Sep. I will resolve this market to the eligible candidate with the highest eligible profit.
Full rules below:
You can submit yourself or other users as an answer.
Candidates should be submitted as "@[Manifold Username]".
Any subsequent duplicate entries will not be selected as the winner.
Before this market closes, there must be a comment posted here with a link to an eligible market, as defined below, showing the candidate as the top trader.
Traders in the same market can qualify.
Market/Payout Eligibility Rules:
The market is publicly listed.
The market is created after Aug 1st (with an emphasis on Sep - i.e. should be open in Sep longer than in Aug)
The market resolves before or at the same time as this market closes (10/01, 11:59:00 PM EST)
The market has a top trader that has been submitted as an answer here.
The market is "serious" in my judgment. It is a predictive market, not about itself / other markets / streamers / manifold user's personal lives (i.e. not a non-predictive market or personal market).
I reserve the right to disqualify a market if it seems like someone has conspired with the top trader to give them the profit deliberately.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ186 | |
| 2 | Ṁ47 | |
| 3 | Ṁ2 |
Whether the spanking market is serious is also questionable. Not a real world event, kind of about a streamer, and questionably newsworthy.
Reasonable arguments, but there's precedent of engagement counting from previous iterations of this market.
And I think the spanking market was about real statistics concerning corporal punishment and sexual fetishes, I think it's serious even if the series of events around the market were pretty ridiculous.
@Joshua Yes, I might need to rephrase the serious criteria. I’m mostly trying to exclude any silly markers that aren’t removed by non-predictive.
I have considered the engagement markets as serious and feel that similarly about spanking market (it was on polymarket after all)
My count is:
PC: https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-manifold-have-a-day-below-1150
Gen: https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-manifold-have-a-day-below-1100-9a8303d6875c
Relay: https://manifold.markets/Aella/will-men-report-they-were-spanked-m
Semiotic: https://manifold.markets/AviS/will-there-be-a-federal-government
(market still open but should be resolved already and closes tonight)
@Joshua Per this commenr, wouldn't it resolve to PC, Marcus, Genzy and Chris? Nowhere does it say that only the top trader in each market can count
"Before this market closes, there must be a comment posted here with a link to an eligible market, as defined below, showing the candidate as the top trader."
"the" in "the top trader", as opposed to "a top trader" is what lays that out. But yeah I totally did a bad job writing these rules up when I made the first version of this months ago.
