Background

Min Aung Hlaing has been Myanmar's military leader since the February 2021 coup. He faces significant domestic opposition from armed resistance groups and international pressure, including potential ICC arrest warrants for alleged crimes against humanity. The military government is planning to hold general elections in 2025 to attempt to legitimize its rule, though the international community largely views this as a bid to maintain military control.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if either:

• Min Aung Hlaing ceases to be the de facto leader of Myanmar before October 1st, 2025

• A military successor takes power but then also ceases to be leader before October 1st, 2025

The market will resolve NO if:

• Min Aung Hlaing remains leader through October 1st, 2025

• Min Aung Hlaing is replaced by a military successor who remains leader through October 1st, 2025

Considerations

• A transition to civilian rule would resolve YES

• A coup by a non-military faction would resolve YES

• A peaceful transfer of power to another military leader who then remains in power through October 1st, 2025 would resolve NO

• International recognition is not required - the market will resolve based on who holds de facto power in Myanmar

• If Min Aung Hlaing temporarily steps aside but retains de facto control through a proxy, this would not count as ceasing to be leader