Visual effects and CGI production workers in the film industry are not unionized to anywhere near the extent that writers and actors are (through WGA and SAG-AFTRA).

The current VFX Union (https://vfxunion.org/) exists as a wing of the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees (IATSE), but has few members. An article published in January 2023 on Vulture.com (https://www.vulture.com/2023/01/inside-the-vfx-union-brewing-in-hollywood.html) stated that the union aims to have 1000 members by Fall.

This market resolves YES if a reliable sources (such as a major news outlet, or public statement from the union via their website or twitter feed) indicates that the IATSE VFX Union has 1000 or more members by the end of 2023. If no such indication has been released by the end of January 2024, this market will resolve to NO. If the IATSE VFX Union formally splits from IATSE, but otherwise maintains membership and continuity, this will not affect resolution.

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Inside the VFX Union Brewing in Hollywood

Visual-effects technicians have never been more vital to movies and TV. Can studios like Marvel accept that?