When&how will I die in Jan 2023?
4
Ṁ340Ṁ1.3kresolved Feb 1
100%98.9%
(survive)
0.5%Other
0.1%
Jan 1, drowning
0.1%
Jan 11, poison
0.4%
Jan 31, homicide
This market resolves:
"(survive)", if I survive until Feb 1 2023.
N/A, if I die before Jan 1 2023.
Otherwise, to the coroner's best estimate of my date and cause of death. (I have enlisted a friend to log in to Manifold and resolve this market in the event of my death.)
(Update Nov 6 7am: if multiple options accurately describe my cause of death, the more specific cause wins; if neither cause is clearly more specific, I leave it to my friend's judgement to select the more appropriate one.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Getting real Machine of Death vibes from this one - it's a really cool speculative fiction anthology about a machine that infalliably predicts the manner of a person's death, which you can read for free here: http://machineofdeath.net/ebook
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