Did CEA spend $50k/participant on a student recruiting camp, AND was Ben Hoffman's tweet non-misleading?
11
105Ṁ208resolved Jun 10
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Ben Hoffman just tweeted (https://twitter.com/ben_r_hoffman/status/1533162764042215426)
"A friend who worked there said CEA ran a recruiting camp with the primary target of causing more students to identify as EAs, spent $50k/participant on this. Can connect you w him for details."
Is true in a non-misleading way? We'll find out before Sept 1 (since that's the deadline for the EA critiques prize) but I want to see what people's priors on this thing are.
Rules:
- ***If I don't get more info, this resolves as ambiguous!*** If you want to bet on a question that doesn't do this, ping me or make your own.
- I'll try to resolve early if possible.
- Ben, or other insiders, are welcome to take our money.
- If the $$$ figure was less than $50k but close, I'll resolve PROB as ($/participant)/$50k.
Examples of scenarios in which I would consider the tweet true, but misleading (and thus resolve NO):
- The recruiting camp for non-students, and the "primary target of causing more students to identify as EAs" was something more indirect
- The camp had a more specific main goal. For example, it was for students selected for AI alignment relevant skills, and the goal was to get them to do AI alignment research, and there was a realistic plan for that beyond just causing them to associate with effective altruism
- The high $$$/participant number is because much fewer people showed up than expected, and this was genuinely unforeseen
- They were preparing for a different, bigger camp, and then had to scrap it and did this camp instead, and Ben is adding up the costs for both camps, and then dividing by the number of participants of the camp that actually happened.
Putting "Effective Altruism" in the text in case someone is searching for keywords...
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ23 | |
2 | Ṁ14 | |
3 | Ṁ12 | |
4 | Ṁ7 | |
5 | Ṁ4 |