Did CEA spend $50k/participant on a student recruiting camp, AND was Ben Hoffman's tweet non-misleading?
Resolved
NO
Jun 10
M$208 bet
Ben Hoffman just tweeted (https://twitter.com/ben_r_hoffman/status/1533162764042215426) "A friend who worked there said CEA ran a recruiting camp with the primary target of causing more students to identify as EAs, spent $50k/participant on this. Can connect you w him for details." Is true in a non-misleading way? We'll find out before Sept 1 (since that's the deadline for the EA critiques prize) but I want to see what people's priors on this thing are. Rules: - ***If I don't get more info, this resolves as ambiguous!*** If you want to bet on a question that doesn't do this, ping me or make your own. - I'll try to resolve early if possible. - Ben, or other insiders, are welcome to take our money. - If the $$$ figure was less than $50k but close, I'll resolve PROB as ($/participant)/$50k. Examples of scenarios in which I would consider the tweet true, but misleading (and thus resolve NO): - The recruiting camp for non-students, and the "primary target of causing more students to identify as EAs" was something more indirect - The camp had a more specific main goal. For example, it was for students selected for AI alignment relevant skills, and the goal was to get them to do AI alignment research, and there was a realistic plan for that beyond just causing them to associate with effective altruism - The high $$$/participant number is because much fewer people showed up than expected, and this was genuinely unforeseen - They were preparing for a different, bigger camp, and then had to scrap it and did this camp instead, and Ben is adding up the costs for both camps, and then dividing by the number of participants of the camp that actually happened. Putting "Effective Altruism" in the text in case someone is searching for keywords...

💬 Proven correct

noumena
Rachel Shu bought M$20 of NO
I am familiar with a recent program that had this level of expense, but it was not run by CEA.
0
Rachel Shu made M$7!
Ophelia
Resolved no because (1) the thing he was thinking of is a fellowship, not recruiting camp expenses and (2) there was some connection to CEA, but I don't think it's fair to say that CEA "ran" it (I'm less confident about that point) Sorry for the delay in announcing this
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agrippa
Cool market > The high $$$/participant number is because much fewer people showed up than expected, and this was genuinely unforeseen I think it should still resolve YES in this case, since the headline here would still be incompetence and the text of the tweet would still be accurate.
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SapphireStar
This is shocking if true and im a longtime cea super skeptic.
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noumena
Rachel Shu bought M$20 of NO
I am familiar with a recent program that had this level of expense, but it was not run by CEA.
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noumena
Rachel Shu is betting NO at 42%
@agrippa there was the Icecone workshop, which was aimed at getting competent young EAs up to date with leaders' current direction and getting them to shadow at x-risk orgs, and did lead to over a dozen recruits who are currently in Berkeley and even more interning this summer and fall. My understanding is that the total cost for the 10-day workshop was easily in the range of $50k per attendee, and this is considered reasonably well spent.
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