A new unique model so not opus, sonnet, haiku, fable etc
Resolution criteria
Target Model: This market resolves based on the first brand-new, uniquely named Claude model tier or family released by Anthropic after July 1, 2026.
To qualify, the model must use a completely new class/tier name (e.g., if Anthropic releases "Claude 6 Sonnet" or "Fable 6", it does not count). It must not belong to the Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos families.
Definition of "Banned": The model will resolve YES if, within 90 days of its official public release (via API or web interface), any of the following occur:
A government authority (e.g., the US Commerce Department or an equivalent regulatory body) issues a legal directive, export control order, or restriction that formally forces Anthropic to suspend, recall, or disable access to the model.
Anthropic officially announces a temporary or permanent suspension of the model's access (domestically or globally) specifically to comply with government regulatory pressure, national security directives, or export compliance mandates.
Exclusions:
Standard technical outages, server downtime, or scheduled maintenance.
Voluntarily deprecating or upgrading the model for commercial/technical reasons unrelated to government or regulatory intervention.
Minor geoblocks that do not amount to a full suspension/recall of the model.
Resolution Source: Resolution will be verified via official announcements on the Anthropic News Page or reporting from major tech and business outlets (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, TechCrunch).
Expiration: If no brand-new, uniquely named Claude model tier is released by December 31, 2027, this market will resolve as N/A.
Background
In June 2026, Anthropic launched its advanced "Mythos-class" models, Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5. Just days later, on June 12, 2026, the US government issued an emergency export-control directive restricting foreign nationals from accessing the models due to national security concerns regarding software vulnerability analysis. Unable to verify user citizenship in real time, Anthropic was forced to globally disable access to both Fable 5 and Mythos 5. While these export restrictions were lifted on June 30, 2026, the event established a major precedent for government-mandated "recalls" of frontier AI models. This market asks if Anthropic's next entirely new model class will experience a similar temporary or permanent regulatory ban or forced suspension within its first 90 days.
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1,000