[Short Fuse] Will Bitcoin increase from August 22nd to 23nd?

Question

I know this market closes before August 22nd UTC time this is short fuse to feel free to predict.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the daily close price of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) on August 23, 2026, is higher than the daily close price on August 22, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Primary Source: Daily closing prices (recorded in UTC) on Yahoo Finance BTC-USD Historical Data.

Calculation: The comparison will use the "Close" (or "Adj Close") price listed for the date of August 23, 2026, versus August 22, 2026.

Fallback: If Yahoo Finance data is unavailable, daily close data (UTC) from CoinGecko's Bitcoin Historical Data will be used.

Background

Unlike traditional stock markets, Bitcoin trades 24/7. Financial aggregators like Yahoo Finance and CoinGecko standardize historical data by capturing daily snapshots at midnight (00:00 to 23:59 UTC). This short-fuse market closes to predictions before the weekend price action begins on August 22, 2026.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 53% chance (3 traders, as of Aug 20, 2026).

Resolution criteria

Background

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