Will there be a major flare-up (worse than in past 5 years) involving North Korea in 2022?
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181Ṁ1856resolved Jan 1
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Inspired by the SK election results, but can be an increase in tensions with anyone.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korean-conservative-opposition-candidate-yoon-elected-president-2022-03-09/
YES: An incident involving multiple deaths and escalation from the other country.
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5 North Korean drones crossed the DMZ, SK scrambled in response. One manned SK plane (trainer?) which was responding crashed (accident?), and both pilots survived. Apparently four of the drones were flying over an island near Incheon, and so traffic out of ICN (the main international airport for Seoul) was closed for about an hour.
"In response, the South Korean military said it also sent surveillance planes into the North to photograph its military installations."
I'm not 100% sure where the line is between "major flare-up" and a normal flare-up, but I can give a few examples of what I would resolve/would not resolve to YES.
YES: Something like this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardment_of_Yeonpyeong
YES: Landmine incident in 2015
YES: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_sinking
NO: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-southkorea-shooting/u-n-calls-for-impartial-probe-into-south-korean-man-killed-by-north-korea-idUSKBN26R0TP (but something like this could be YES if SK pushes harder)
NO: They continue with missile tests after being asked to stop
I realize the line is kind of blurry, but I'll do my best to be objective.
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