Will there be a major flare-up (worse than in past 5 years) involving North Korea in 2022?
23
181Ṁ1856resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Inspired by the SK election results, but can be an increase in tensions with anyone.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korean-conservative-opposition-candidate-yoon-elected-president-2022-03-09/
YES: An incident involving multiple deaths and escalation from the other country.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ34 | |
2 | Ṁ32 | |
3 | Ṁ30 | |
4 | Ṁ11 | |
5 | Ṁ11 |
People are also trading
Will North Korea detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025?
6% chance
Will North Korea officially declare war on another country by the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will there be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050?
22% chance
Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?
22% chance
Sort by:
5 North Korean drones crossed the DMZ, SK scrambled in response. One manned SK plane (trainer?) which was responding crashed (accident?), and both pilots survived. Apparently four of the drones were flying over an island near Incheon, and so traffic out of ICN (the main international airport for Seoul) was closed for about an hour.
"In response, the South Korean military said it also sent surveillance planes into the North to photograph its military installations."
I'm not 100% sure where the line is between "major flare-up" and a normal flare-up, but I can give a few examples of what I would resolve/would not resolve to YES.
YES: Something like this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardment_of_Yeonpyeong
YES: Landmine incident in 2015
YES: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_sinking
NO: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-southkorea-shooting/u-n-calls-for-impartial-probe-into-south-korean-man-killed-by-north-korea-idUSKBN26R0TP (but something like this could be YES if SK pushes harder)
NO: They continue with missile tests after being asked to stop
I realize the line is kind of blurry, but I'll do my best to be objective.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will North Korea detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025?
6% chance
Will North Korea officially declare war on another country by the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will there be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050?
22% chance
Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?
22% chance