Will there be a major flare-up (worse than in past 5 years) involving North Korea in 2022?
23
181Ṁ1856
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO
Inspired by the SK election results, but can be an increase in tensions with anyone. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korean-conservative-opposition-candidate-yoon-elected-president-2022-03-09/ YES: An incident involving multiple deaths and escalation from the other country.
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predictedNO

@OliverS 2022 is over :)

predictedNO

5 North Korean drones crossed the DMZ, SK scrambled in response. One manned SK plane (trainer?) which was responding crashed (accident?), and both pilots survived. Apparently four of the drones were flying over an island near Incheon, and so traffic out of ICN (the main international airport for Seoul) was closed for about an hour.

"In response, the South Korean military said it also sent surveillance planes into the North to photograph its military installations."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64094143

predictedYES

@citrinitas Nope, though it raises the likelihood

I'm not 100% sure where the line is between "major flare-up" and a normal flare-up, but I can give a few examples of what I would resolve/would not resolve to YES. YES: Something like this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardment_of_Yeonpyeong YES: Landmine incident in 2015 YES: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_sinking NO: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-southkorea-shooting/u-n-calls-for-impartial-probe-into-south-korean-man-killed-by-north-korea-idUSKBN26R0TP (but something like this could be YES if SK pushes harder) NO: They continue with missile tests after being asked to stop I realize the line is kind of blurry, but I'll do my best to be objective.
Could you state your resolution criteria a bit more precisely?
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