Which of the following indexes and (crypto)currencies will grow more in 5 years from today?

Plus

Ṁ387

2029

11%

S&P 500

31%

NASDAQ Composite

17%

Dow Jones Industrial Average

19%

BTC

12%

ETH

SOL

1.6%

USD

1.6%

EUR

1.6%

JPY

This market will resolve based on the growth of each of the listed assets between 2024-05-16 and 2029-05-16. The asset that will grow the most will "win".

Here're the baseline values, from marketwatch.com, coindesk.com and bloomberg.com:

S&P 500: 5308.15

NASDAQ Composite: 16742.39

Dow (DJIA): $39869.38

BTC: $65950.32

ETH: $3016.79

SOL: $161.52

USD: $1

EUR: $1.0876

JPY: $0.00648

On 2029-05-16 I will similarly retrieve the values for these assets, calculate how much they have grown (or diminished) over 5 years and will resolve the market accordingly. Since the assets are evaluated in USD, the growth for USD will necessarily be 1x or 0%.

I do not bet on my own questions.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Update after ~100 days:

S&P 500: +6.4%

NASDAQ Composite: +5.8%

Dow (DJIA): +4.2%

BTC: -11.5%

ETH: -17.3%

SOL: -16.7%

USD: 0%

EUR: +2%

JPY: +4.9%

Roughly one month in, the growth is as follows:

S&P 500: +2.3%

Nasdaq Comp: +5.7%

DJIA: -3.2%

BTC: 0%

ETH: +17.5%

SOL: -10.8%

USD: 0%

EUR: -1.6%

JPY: 0%

One week in, the growth is as follows:

S&P 500: -0.02%

COMP: +0.35%

DJIA: -0.01%

BTC: +5.3%

ETH: +25.1%

SOL: +9.78%

USD: 0%

EUR: -0.47%

JPY: -1.5%

So if the market were resolved today, ETH would be the winner.

What does "grow more" mean here? Are we predicting which one grows the most or whether the index finishes above or below where it is today?

@SethSoarenson For which one of these assets the ratio (value in USD on 2029-05-16 / value in USD on 2024-05-16) will be the highest.

$1 will always be $1, so it's growth will be 1x or +0%.

Suppose 1 EUR will be = $1.5. This translates into 1.5/1.08876 = 1.38x growth or +38%.

If 1 JPY will be = $0.005, then it will diminish by 0.005 / 0.00648 = 0.77x or -23%.

So out of these 3 assets EUR grew the most.

Does it make sense?

@OlegEterevsky cool, so if I understand correctly, if you made this same question 5 years ago, ETH would have won because it grew 1770% and every other chart would have resolved no?

@SethSoarenson Sounds about right. The options are mutually exclusive.

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