Robin Hanson's Grabby Aliens model (https://grabbyaliens.com/) is a proposed explanation for Fermi Paradox. It predicts that the Universe is getting eventually split into spheres of influence of different alien civilizations.

This question will resolve to YES under one of the following conditions:

1. The parameters in Drake equation are found and it is in some way proven that some of the civilizations will exist long enough and expand at high enough speed to agree with Grabby Aliens model.

2. We detect spheres of influence of at least two civilizations originating from different stars with roughly the predicted speed of expansion and scale.

3. We establish contact with at least one alien species which confirms the Grabby Aliens model.

The question will resolve to NO under one of the following conditions:

1. The Drake equation is solved (all of the parameters are discovered), and its solution is inconsistent with Grabby Aliens (for example the maximum lifetime of a civilization turns out too short).

2. We meet more than one alien species from our own Galaxy. (The Grabby Aliens model predict that there shouldn't be other advanced Alien civilizations in Milky Way)

3. We live to the year 5'000'000'000 without encountering other alien species.

The question will resolve to NA if the solution to Fermi paradox and Drake equation is found and it is controversial how much it agrees with Grabby Aliens model.

If the question is not resolved by the year 9999, I will try to extend the market until the year 5*10^9. Currently it's not possible to set it as a closing date.

Disclaimer: I will not bet on this market.