https://manifold.markets/AlexLiesman/will-brighton-defeat-manchester-uni
This one counts for 98%, also counts for 95%

@FedorBeets I wonder whether those markets will resolve before 2024 if Isaac would not come back until then: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/when-wvm-closes-will-it-have-at-lea#XCaQn0HedS78zzZ5Ymbe

This is a legitimate real world market that went from 3% to 98% in a single trade and then to 99.7% within 5 minutes

@MarcusAbramovitch Less than 10 traders

92%

This was close.

@IsaacKing It seems the best way to ensure this happens is to post a bunch of markets that have a specific deadline for some high stakes event, and then make enough of them that everyone piles in on NO as the last day approaches, and then just by the law of large numbers one of them swings last minute.

@LarsDoucet Or even simpler:

This market resolves YES with 1% probability. I will announce the result of the random number generator 10 minutes before closing the market.

And make 100 of those.

@IsaacKing Are those "serious" markets tho?

@LarsDoucet Oh right, I forgot I had intentionally ruled those out with my "Does not include any market with a structure designed to make this happen" line.

@IsaacKing ”Will this specific 60 year old die?” is pretty similar two year one percent market. Does that count as serious enough?

@JimHays 😕

@IsaacKing *similar to your

e/acc made a bunch almost like this, such as

This one went from 80 to 0.

This market was at 97% at time of close, and a NO resolution was debated. Ultimately it was resolved to 90%. https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-the-mysterious-profit-spikes-b?r=SmltSGF5cw

This one was close.

https://manifold.markets/AlexKirigiya/will-destiny-reach-600k-subscribers-f4af7ec9bbed?referrer=Tenda what about this one?

@Tenda Looks like that was only an ~86 percentage point swing.

You're right it jumps from 10% to 86%, unfortunately it was at 3% around 13 minutes before the jump

@IsaacKing I'll keep looking I'm sure there's one that's already done

@Tenda Yeah, looks like it went from 3% to 97% in 11 minutes, so it's definitely close to what I was looking for. Just doesn't quite fit the criteria I laid out.

https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-narendra-modi-hold-bilateral-m-6dd783819531

@BTE Shit, not enough traders to qualify.

@BTE Still interesting, as that is the sort of thing I wanted to know about.

@IsaacKing We've got an entire year to go, if people keep posting markets we're definitely going to see another one of these, at least at the 95% threshold.