Includes resolutions even if no one corrected the market beforehand.
For example:
A market that was at <=2% and then resolved YES.
A market that was at >=98% and then was suddenly bet down to <=2%, and remains at <=2% for several days, or resolves to NO shortly afterwards.
Only counts binary markets. Does not include any market with less than 10 traders at the time of the swing. Does not include any market with a structure designed to make this happen. (Like the creator offering to pay back all the traders or something like that.) Does not include someone spiking the market and it being corrected shortly afterwards. Does not count incorrect resolutions. Does not include any swings that occurrred before this market was created. (Though if this has already happened I'd still like to know about it.)
Markets on various swing sizes:
Related questions
๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน115 | |
| 2 | แน14 | |
| 3 | แน13 | |
| 4 | แน12 | |
| 5 | แน11 |
https://manifold.markets/AlexLiesman/will-brighton-defeat-manchester-uni
This one counts for 98%, also counts for 95%
@FedorBeets I wonder whether those markets will resolve before 2024 if Isaac would not come back until then: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/when-wvm-closes-will-it-have-at-lea#XCaQn0HedS78zzZ5Ymbe
@IsaacKing It seems the best way to ensure this happens is to post a bunch of markets that have a specific deadline for some high stakes event, and then make enough of them that everyone piles in on NO as the last day approaches, and then just by the law of large numbers one of them swings last minute.
@LarsDoucet Or even simpler:
This market resolves YES with 1% probability. I will announce the result of the random number generator 10 minutes before closing the market.
And make 100 of those.
@LarsDoucet Oh right, I forgot I had intentionally ruled those out with my "Does not include any market with a structure designed to make this happen" line.
@IsaacKing โWill this specific 60 year old die?โ is pretty similar two year one percent market. Does that count as serious enough?
This market was at 97% at time of close, and a NO resolution was debated. Ultimately it was resolved to 90%. https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-the-mysterious-profit-spikes-b?r=SmltSGF5cw
@Tenda Yeah, looks like it went from 3% to 97% in 11 minutes, so it's definitely close to what I was looking for. Just doesn't quite fit the criteria I laid out.
@IsaacKing We've got an entire year to go, if people keep posting markets we're definitely going to see another one of these, at least at the 95% threshold.