I'll use whatever sources of game reports are available during the tournament to try to determine this. The burden of proof is on YES here - if it's not reported, the market will resolve NO by default.

A "game win" here is winning any single game as part of a match and getting credit for it in the tournament.

It still counts if you get a win due to your opponent conceding the match or showing up and then abandoning it, as long as the game starts and the mulligan took place, and the game is recognized as part of the match.

markets for other hand sizes:

/Odoacre/in-the-manifold-mtg-tournament-will-16ecf8486a25

/Odoacre/in-the-manifold-mtg-tournament-will-552f1fd60390

/Odoacre/in-the-manifold-mtg-tournament-will-ce26b22db994