All correct answers resolve yes! If Matt Van Epps or Aftyn Behn wins by 30.00% for example, all their wins by X%+ resolve yes.

For example, If Aftyn Behn won by 3.23%, Aftyn Behn by 0.50%+,1.00%+ and 2.00%+ would resolve yes, and everything else would resolve no.

If Matt Van Epps won by 0.21%, Matt Van Epps by 0.4999% or less would resolve yes, and everything else would resolve no.

Resolution criteria

The special election will be held on December 2, 2025. The margin of victory will be determined by the official vote totals reported by the Tennessee Secretary of State. The winner's vote share minus the runner-up's vote share determines which margin brackets resolves yes.

Background

The seat became vacant on July 20, 2025, following the resignation of Republican Mark Green. New district boundaries drawn by the Republican-controlled state legislature in 2021 moved the district into northern Nashville and added a significant Democrat population. Since redistricting, Republicans have not won more than 60% of the vote. An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey finds 48% of voters support Republican Matt Van Epps and 46% support Democrat Aftyn Behn, conducted November 22-24, 2025.

Considerations

The Cook Political Report moved the district to "lean Republican" from "solid Republican" mainly because of a 75% decrease in GOP turnout, while Democrats are motivated to cast ballots in early voting. In the first four 2025 special elections, Democrats exceeded the Democratic candidates' margins in 2024 House races by an average of 16 points.