“Will Elon Musk mention Dogecoin before June ends?”
Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if Elon Musk posts the word "Dogecoin" (or the ticker "$DOGE") on his official X (formerly Twitter) account (@elonmusk) between the time of market creation and 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026.
Mentions in replies, quote-posts, or original posts all count. If there is ambiguity regarding whether a specific post constitutes a mention, the market will resolve based on the literal inclusion of the specified terms. If Musk's account is suspended, deleted, or otherwise inaccessible, the market will resolve based on verifiable media reports confirming a post made by him during the timeframe.
Background
Elon Musk has a documented history of influencing the price of Dogecoin through his social media presence. Since 2021, his posts—ranging from memes to direct mentions—have frequently resulted in immediate market volatility for the cryptocurrency. Traders should monitor his X feed closely, as his communication style regarding the asset is often unpredictable and informal.
This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
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@Nullvoid I believe your resolution is incorrect according to your stated criteria. Elon Musk didn't post either of those words. His quote post only says "True". Only the post from the other account that is not Elon says "Dogecoin".
@xjp “Mentions in replies, quote-posts, or original posts all count.” I definitely see your argument but it is directly mentioned in the quoted post. Maybe I’m just not familiar enough with twitter lingo. I wasn’t confident which is why I only bet it to 50. Curious to see what the market creator thinks
@StevetptC8 There is a lot of history to tweet markets across Manifold and other sites, and words said by other people and only retweeted or quoted by the person in question have never counted. The criteria for this market make it pretty clear that Elon Musk himself must post those particular words in his own tweet.
@xjp I don’t feel like I should have to be an expert on historical twitter market resolutions to be able to trade here. The criteria only says that mentions in replies will count. It is ambiguous to me whether he must mention it in his reply or if the thing he is replying to mentions it. In the spirit of the market his simple reply caused multiple news outlets to write stories about Dogecoin. It’s not my market, I just thought it was possible it counted though