This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030
98.4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2030. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.
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Isaac Kingis predicting YES at 97%
@YohanProYT That part of the description hasn't been updated since Manifold changed how loans worked a few months ago, it's no longer accurate.
Isaac Kingis predicting YES at 97%
@YohanProYT Yeah, it was the same idea as today's loans, but they were limited to M$20, and you got them all immediately rather than 2% per day.
joy_void_joy I'm confused, isn't there (strictly dominating) arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive-114eccf1cb27 ? Why is this one higher?
Isaac Kingbought Ṁ1 of YESOh, I think I misunderstood the intention here. You're not looking for the true discount rate of M$, you're looking for the residual effects that it has on market probabilities due to there only being a finite number of people who take out loans.
Isaac Kingbought Ṁ1 of YESDoes this actually measure the discount rate though? There's no downside to buying M$20 of yes, and enough people doing so will drive the price to 100% regardless of what the real discount rate is.
Indeed, the loans were implemented in order to prevent discounting from affecting market probabilities; i.e. to prevent markets from displaying the exact type of behavior that you're trying to get this market to display.
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YES payouts
Ṁ7,219
Ṁ6,371
Ṁ2,586
Ṁ1,142
Ṁ540
Ṁ317
Ṁ307
Ṁ148
Ṁ104
Ṁ104
Ṁ99
Ṁ39
Ṁ37
Ṁ30
Ṁ26
Ṁ26
Ṁ26
Ṁ25
NO payouts
Ṁ5,000
Ṁ1,974
Ṁ1,019
Ṁ600
Ṁ231
