Will Manifold complete the secret location puzzle? (Manifold Plays Puzzle - Round 3)
Will Manifold complete the secret location puzzle? (Manifold Plays Puzzle - Round 3)
6
130Ṁ3229resolved Sep 14
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I have taken a screenshot of a random location in the world via GeoGuesser and uploaded it as a 2000-piece puzzle. Will Manifold manage to complete it before the close date? Careful, this time you only got 3 days!
The puzzle is available at: https://puzzle.aggie.io/wFXoz4
Resolves YES immediately if the puzzle is completed by or before close time.
Resolves NO otherwise.
Resolves N/A if someone hacks the website somehow, or if someone uses a puzzle-solving bot (let's try to keep things human-only 😃).
Round 3 also includes the Secret Location challenge, where you can bet on which country the picture was taken in.
Inspired by @KongoLandwalker
We did it!
The puzzle has been completed in just 15 hours and 26 minutes, and the market resolves YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ49 | |
| 2 | Ṁ24 | |
| 3 | Ṁ14 | |
| 4 | Ṁ6 | |
| 5 | Ṁ4 |
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.