💘 How many things will happen in February 2024?
29
366
1K
resolved Mar 2
11 YES, 6 NO, 13 N/A, 36 at >50%, Total 130
Feb 8
21 YES
Feb 12
36 YES
Feb 21
40 YES
Feb 24
46 YES
Feb 28
57 YES
Mar 1
58 YES, 3 at 50%+
Mar 1
60 YES
Mar 2
60 YES
Mar 2
100%99.2%
51-60
0.1%
<40
0.0%
40-50
0.5%
61-70
0.0%
71-80
0.2%
>80

How many sub-markets will have resolved YES at the end of February in chris' What will happen in February 2024? mega-market?

Markets that resolved NO or N/A don't count.

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bought Ṁ12 61-70 YES

Exactly 60 YES as of now, with just 2 last submarkets waiting to be resolved! It really came down to how those celebrity status polls resolve. I've reopened this market until tomorrow, I'm going to bed now.

Reopen please?

There's a good chance the final answer here comes down to this poll, which is currently tied: Do any of the people listed in the description count as a 'celebrity' to you? | Manifold.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 The main market closes today, but the poll closes on the 9th. Is this intended? Should I move the closing date for this market to match?

@NoyaV Based on the description "How many sub-markets will have resolved YES at the end of February", sub-markets which resolve in March probably shouldn't be counted.

@MugaSofer You may be right, I should have been more specific. I still think it's fairly obvious it was intended to match with the resolution of all sub-markets, so I'll wait until they do. But I will change the description for March's market, thanks

thanks for setting this up! fun to see

>80

This can resolve NO already - there are 51 YES and only 21 still open.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 This is a single-result market, so I'll resolve to only 1 of the anwers when it closes. Next month's version is a proper multi-market instead

bought Ṁ129 >80 NO

51 YES so far, plus I expect at least 10 more.

bought Ṁ20 51-60 YES

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Now 57, with one more certain to happen and two very likely. But someone sabotaged the Biden market, so this might only make it to 60.

bought Ṁ70 >80 NO

Current count appears to be 48 resolved YES, 13 above 50%, for a total of ~61.

@MugaSofer Yeah, that was my count too. But I expect that a few more options could also be added if some are resolved today before the market closes.

bought Ṁ29 >80 NO

Next month's market is up!

bought Ṁ5 61-70 YES

There's currently 11 markests that resolves YES + 36 markets at >50% for a total of 47/130

It looks like I once again got the answer buckets wrong. Oh well, you live you learn.