Public Celebrity Sex Scandal (as judged by manifold)

'celebr':2 'judg':6 'manifold':8 'public':1 'scandal':4 'sex':3

'announc':4 'compani':3 'larg':1 'layoff':5 'tech':2

Vivek Ramaswamy still in Republican Primary through end of month

'end':8 'month':10 'primari':6 'ramaswami':2 'republican':5 'still':3 'vivek':1

The Superbowl is won by the underdog team (Chiefs)

'chief':9 'superbowl':2 'team':8 'underdog':7 'won':4

'5.0':3 'earthquak':1 'higher':5 'magnitud':2

'8.0':3 'earthquak':1 'higher':5 'magnitud':2

Snows in Lincoln Park, Chicago on Valentine's Day

'chicago':5 'day':9 'lincoln':3 'park':4 'snow':1 'valentin':7

'1':3 'bowl':9 'kelc':4 'least':2 'play':5 'super':8

'd':8 'furi':2 'get':3 'knock':4 'tko':7 'tyson':1

Christie still in Republican Primary through end of Feb

'christi':1 'end':7 'feb':9 'primari':5 'republican':4 'still':2

Trump or Biden drop out/die/are disqualified from the 2024 presidential election 

'2024':9 'biden':3 'disqualifi':6 'drop':4 'elect':11 'out/die/are':5 'presidenti':10 'trump':1

'phil':2 'punxsutawney':1 'see':3 'shadow':5

Haley and DeSantis are on Michigan GOP primary ballot (Feb.27)

'ballot':9 'desanti':3 'feb.27':10 'gop':7 'haley':1 'michigan':6 'primari':8

BTC closes higher on Feb. 29 than on Jan. 31

'29':6 '31':10 'btc':1 'close':2 'feb':5 'higher':3 'jan':9

Nikki Haley wins the South Carolina GOP Primary

'carolina':6 'gop':7 'haley':2 'nikki':1 'primari':8 'south':5 'win':3

Nikki Haley finishes second in the Michigan GOP Primary

'finish':3 'gop':8 'haley':2 'michigan':7 'nikki':1 'primari':9 'second':4

Superbowl commercial featuring a talking bird 

'bird':6 'commerci':2 'featur':3 'superbowl':1 'talk':5

The Australian dollar will be worth $0.69 USD or more at some point 

'0.69':7 'australian':2 'dollar':3 'point':13 'usd':8 'worth':6

'appl':1 'consum':5 'hand':6 'pro':3 'vision':2

@strutheo will think the 2024 SB halftimeshow was better than the last one he saw (2022 - Dre, Snoop, Eminem, Kendrick, MJB, etc)

'2022':16 '2024':5 'better':9 'dre':17 'eminem':19 'etc':22 'halftimeshow':7 'kendrick':20 'last':12 'mjb':21 'one':13 'saw':15 'sb':6 'snoop':18 'strutheo':1 'think':3

'arrest':4 'dui':6 'get':3 'nfl':1 'player':2

Donald trump wins every primary and caucus that takes place in February  (republican, exclude nevada)

'caucus':7 'donald':1 'everi':4 'exclud':14 'februari':12 'nevada':15 'place':10 'primari':5 'republican':13 'take':9 'trump':2 'win':3

Superbowl is won with a difference of 10 points or more

'10':8 'differ':6 'point':9 'superbowl':1 'won':3

Pornhub.com top trending search term ever is "crushing" (soft or hard)

'crush':8 'ever':6 'hard':11 'pornhub.com':1 'search':4 'soft':9 'term':5 'top':2 'trend':3

strutheo decides to resolve this option YES

'decid':2 'option':6 'resolv':4 'strutheo':1 'yes':7

V appears more than B on wikipedia's english home page on valentine's day 

'appear':2 'b':5 'day':15 'english':9 'home':10 'page':11 'v':1 'valentin':13 'wikipedia':7

'anoth':1 'balloon':4 'chines':2 'incid':5 'spi':3

A commercial aviation incident happens that makes headline news

'aviat':3 'commerci':2 'happen':5 'headlin':8 'incid':4 'make':7 'news':9

New reports of Boeing or Alaska airlines under increased scrutiny by FAA, NTSB, or other aviation agency (originating in February) for 737 MAX decompression incident

'737':22 'agenc':17 'airlin':7 'alaska':6 'aviat':16 'boe':4 'decompress':24 'faa':12 'februari':20 'incid':25 'increas':9 'max':23 'new':1 'ntsb':13 'origin':18 'report':2 'scrutini':10

This market breaks down (bets unavailable for at least 10 minutes) (this specific market not the whole site)

'10':10 'bet':5 'break':3 'least':9 'market':2,14 'minut':11 'site':18 'specif':13 'unavail':6 'whole':17

'biden':7 'cancel':4 'day':2 'groundhog':1 'joe':6

Will more answers on this market resolve YES than NO (excluding NA)

'answer':3 'exclud':11 'market':6 'na':12 'resolv':7 'yes':8

A famous global brand undergoes a rebranding  ('famous' as judged by manifold if uncertain)

'brand':4 'famous':2,8 'global':3 'judg':10 'manifold':12 'rebrand':7 'uncertain':14 'undergo':5

This market will have at least 10 questions resolve No

'10':7 'least':6 'market':2 'question':8 'resolv':9

This market will have at least 10 questions resolve Yes

'10':7 'least':6 'market':2 'question':8 'resolv':9 'yes':10

This market will have at least 10 questions resolve NA

'10':7 'least':6 'market':2 'na':10 'question':8 'resolv':9

We will get more hours light per day on average than in January in the Northern Hemisphere

'averag':10 'day':8 'get':3 'hemispher':17 'hour':5 'januari':13 'light':6 'northern':16 'per':7

'3000':4 'follow':3 'peopl':5 'strutheo':1

The market ends with less traders than the January market.

'end':3 'januari':9 'less':5 'market':2,10 'trader':6

David Grusch publishes Op-Ed or is interviewed by a major newspaper and provides first-hand experience or direct evidence of UAP programs

'david':1 'direct':21 'ed':6 'evid':22 'experi':19 'first':17 'first-hand':16 'grusch':2 'hand':18 'interview':9 'major':12 'newspap':13 'op':5 'op-':4 'program':25 'provid':15 'publish':3 'uap':24

More questions in this market resolve to YES than did in the corresponding January market

'correspond':13 'januari':14 'market':5,15 'question':2 'resolv':6 'yes':8

Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive on February 29, 2024 at 11:59:59pm EST

'11':10 '2024':8 '29':7 '59':11 '59pm':12 'aliv':4 'eliez':1 'est':13 'februari':6 'yudkowski':2

chris (strutheo) rolls another d20 die, and this time it lands on a natural 1

'1':15 'anoth':4 'chris':1 'd20':5 'die':6 'land':11 'natur':14 'roll':3 'strutheo':2 'time':9

Weak AGI achieved, as defined by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

'achiev':3 'agi':2 'defin':5 'market':13 'metaculus':12 'resolut':9 'topic':16 'weak':1 'yes':8

at least one tesla fire reported by tesla-fire.com

'fire':5 'least':2 'one':3 'report':6 'tesla':4 'tesla-fire.com':8

An artist is announced as performing at Fyre Festival II

'announc':4 'artist':2 'festiv':9 'fyre':8 'ii':10 'perform':6

Every NBA team wins at least one game and loses at least one game

'everi':1 'game':8,14 'least':6,12 'lose':10 'nba':2 'one':7,13 'team':3 'win':4

at least two tesla fires reported by tesla-fire.com

'fire':5 'least':2 'report':6 'tesla':4 'tesla-fire.com':8 'two':3

current NBA or MLB or NFL player arrested 

'arrest':8 'current':1 'mlb':4 'nba':2 'nfl':6 'player':7

Apple Vision Pro in consumer hands and chris (strutheo) judges that a majority of its reviews are "mixed" or negative

'appl':1 'chris':8 'consum':5 'hand':6 'judg':10 'major':13 'mix':18 'negat':20 'pro':3 'review':16 'strutheo':9 'vision':2

Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is 95% or higher

'95':12 'ai':9 'annihil':10 'eliez':1 'higher':14 'probabl':7 'remain':3 'unwav':4 'yudkowski':2

A celebrity dies OR has a child born on leap day (FEB 29) ('celebrity' as judged by manifold)

'29':13 'born':8 'celebr':2,14 'child':7 'day':11 'die':3 'feb':12 'judg':16 'leap':10 'manifold':18

nVidia stock has at least one trade greater than $700 during normal, premarket, or aftermarket hours

'700':10 'aftermarket':15 'greater':8 'hour':16 'least':5 'normal':12 'nvidia':1 'one':6 'premarket':13 'stock':2 'trade':7

The Eagles win OR The Steelers win OR The Lady Lions (NCAAW basketball) win a game.

'basketbal':13 'eagl':2 'game':16 'ladi':10 'lion':11 'ncaaw':12 'steeler':6 'win':3,7,14

Nikki Haley favored to win nomination, according to Betfair, on February 29 at 11:59:59pm EST

'11':14 '29':12 '59':15 '59pm':16 'accord':7 'betfair':9 'est':17 'favor':3 'februari':11 'haley':2 'nikki':1 'nomin':6 'win':5

Manifold's politics dashboard releases to the public 

'dashboard':4 'manifold':1 'polit':3 'public':8 'releas':5

BTC has >= 1 trade above $40,000 on Coinbase Pro between February 1, 12:00am EST and February 29, 11:59:59pm EST

'000':7 '00am':15 '1':3,13 '11':20 '12':14 '29':19 '40':6 '59':21 '59pm':22 'btc':1 'coinbas':9 'est':16,23 'februari':12,18 'pro':10 'trade':4

another leak of military info through the War Thunder gaming community 

'anoth':1 'communiti':11 'game':10 'info':5 'leak':2 'militari':4 'thunder':9 'war':8

'-19':6 'covid':5 'diagnos':3 'haley':2 'nikki':1

'covid19':5 'desanti':1 'diagnos':3 'public':2

LeBron James reaches 40,000 career NBA points

'000':5 '40':4 'career':6 'jame':2 'lebron':1 'nba':7 'point':8 'reach':3

chris (strutheo) judges that the amount, strength, and/or balance of evidence continued to grow in favor of non-human intelligence

'amount':6 'and/or':8 'balanc':9 'chris':1 'continu':12 'evid':11 'favor':16 'grow':14 'human':20 'intellig':21 'judg':3 'non':19 'non-human':18 'strength':7 'strutheo':2

Someone with a english wikipedia page born on Feb 29th dies

'29th':10 'born':7 'die':11 'english':4 'feb':9 'page':6 'someon':1 'wikipedia':5

OpenAI announces, in a blog post, a new model or the increased capability of an existing model.

'announc':2 'blog':5 'capabl':13 'exist':16 'increas':12 'model':9,17 'new':8 'openai':1 'post':6

'detroit':2 'game':6 'multipl':5 'piston':3 'win':4

National anthem at the Super Bowl greater than or equal to 123 seconds in length

'123':12 'anthem':2 'bowl':6 'equal':10 'greater':7 'length':15 'nation':1 'second':13 'super':5

Haley drops out (was: Haley or DeSantis drop out)

Norway sweep the podium in any of the 2024 Biathlon World Championship events

'2024':9 'biathlon':10 'championship':12 'event':13 'norway':1 'podium':4 'sweep':2 'world':11

The Eliezer Yudkowsky $150,000 UFO bet market's longstanding 93% buy wall fails for at least one trade during February

'000':5 '150':4 '93':11 'bet':7 'buy':12 'eliez':2 'fail':14 'februari':21 'least':17 'longstand':10 'market':8 'one':18 'trade':19 'ufo':6 'wall':13 'yudkowski':3

e appears more than a on wikipedias english homepage on Feb 28

'28':12 'appear':2 'e':1 'english':8 'feb':11 'homepag':9 'wikipedia':7

New World Record for Super Mario 64 120 Star Speedrun - speedrun.com/sm64

'/sm64':13 '120':8 '64':7 'mario':6 'new':1 'record':3 'speedrun':10 'speedrun.com':12 'speedrun.com/sm64':11 'star':9 'super':5 'world':2

A new person "beats" NES Tetris (gets far enough to make the game crash)

'beat':4 'crash':14 'enough':9 'far':8 'game':13 'get':7 'make':11 'nes':5 'new':2 'person':3 'tetri':6

'7.0':4 'earthquak':1 'higher':6 'magnitud':3

'caucus':7 'lose':2 'primari':5 'state':4 'trump':1

Jimmy Carter dies of natural causes OR murder-suicide  

'carter':2 'caus':6 'die':3 'jimmi':1 'murder':9 'murder-suicid':8 'natur':5 'suicid':10

'aid':8 'blown':7 'destini':1 'full':6 'full-blown':5 'reveal':2

'destini':1 'get':2 'livestream':5 'swat':3

Destiny's penis is visible in a sex tape released 

'destini':1 'peni':3 'releas':10 'sex':8 'tape':9 'visibl':5

'anyon':3 'daili':5 'debat':2 'destini':1 'wire':6

Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of winning his $150,000 UFO bet is 99.33% or higher

'000':12 '150':11 '99.33':16 'bet':14 'eliez':1 'higher':18 'probabl':7 'remain':3 'ufo':13 'unwav':4 'win':9 'yudkowski':2

An outbreak of at least ten tornadoes causes significant damage in the United States

'caus':8 'damag':10 'least':5 'outbreak':2 'signific':9 'state':14 'ten':6 'tornado':7 'unit':13

Someone buys 1000 mana worth of NO on this option, and is still holding on to it when chris notices and resolves this option

'1000':3 'buy':2 'chris':19 'hold':14 'mana':4 'notic':20 'option':10,24 'resolv':22 'someon':1 'still':13 'worth':5

Gravity continues to exist for the whole month

'continu':2 'exist':4 'graviti':1 'month':8 'whole':7

Alan's conservative countdown to AGI meets or exceeds 66%

'66':10 'agi':6 'alan':1 'conserv':3 'countdown':4 'exceed':9 'meet':7

Alan's conservative countdown to AGI meets or exceeds 67%

'67':10 'agi':6 'alan':1 'conserv':3 'countdown':4 'exceed':9 'meet':7