Will Twitter go bankrupt before 2024?

Nostradamnedus

2024

148

12%

chance

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Technology

Twitter

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Leonardo Kröger

https://manifold.markets/LeonardoKroger/will-twitter-file-for-bankruptcy-be

Andy Martinis predicting YES at 9%

https://enersection.io/twitter/

Andy Martinis predicting YES at 14%

Should I step down as head of Twitter? I will abide by the results of this poll.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604617643973124097#m

BowTrixis predicting YES at 12%

@AndyMartin this might substantially lower the odds of bankruptcy

Andy Martinis predicting YES at 12%

Hard to imagine it won't be reversed, but Paul Graham got suspended from Twitter for mentioning he has a Mastodon account: https://mastodon.social/@caseynewton/109537017200425834

Seems like many more will follow

Gigacastingis predicting NO at 14%

RIP Elonophobes

Gigacastingbought Ṁ0 of NO

Before = before.

Leonardo Kröger

https://manifold.markets/LeonardoKroger/will-twitter-file-for-bankruptcy-be

Gabriellesold Ṁ6 of YES

If Elon couldn't subsidize it with his personal wealth, I think it would be plausible, but it seems to me like he would be willing to do that.

Gigacastingbought Ṁ250 of NO

“

Gigacastingbought Ṁ90 of NO

Shaking out all the weak people there

https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/elon-musk-bankrupt-warning-twitter-tesla-51668176077

Gigacastingis predicting NO at 18%

Instagram had hundreds of millions of users with a dozen people, and frankly Twitter could be better run with a few dozen and an ad team than it has been for years.

Elon is shaking out all the rot of teams that never ship, the majority of staff being hall monitors and commissars, and something between user count fraud and incompetence by the anti-spam teams.

Wouldn’t be surprised if >90% turnover occurs, and even on 2b revenue (50% haircut) it’s trivial to get back to cash flow positivity after cleaning house.