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very confused why Marcus bought up to 94%...

@AlQuinn oh mother of god. i thought this was manifold financial crisis

@MarcusAbramovitch I'll just count it as a mana xmas present 🎄 , but I was too spooked to buy more NO than I did (and worried what might happen to my 409k)

@AlQuinn Thankfully my reputation helped me out here. it usually doesnt

Arbitrage

https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/economy-2023-stock-market-down-on-t?r=amVyZW1pYWhzYW1yb28

Economy 2023: Stock market down on the year?

16% chance. This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made 10…

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I've set up a juicy limit order on no at 25% if anyone wants to buy into it.

What qualifies as a financial crisis? Is the current banking crisis a financial crisis?

@IlyaXValmianski I think it would have to be comparable to 2008 or 1987.

@Nostradamnedus Comparable in what way? Would 2001 have counted? Is there a specific index that you can give us, or that it’s been mentioned in a certain news source with certain language? Or, is this just subjectively resolved by your opinion?

@SaulMunn I'm open to any indexes that might be available.

@Nostradamnedus as the market creator… which one (if any) are you using?

@SaulMunn maybe use this, from metaculus:

“For the purposes of this question, a "financial crisis" is a value of the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) of 1.75, a level that has happened four times in the last 30 years: the 1998 Russian Financial Crisis, after 9/11, during the 2008 Financial Crisis, and at the beginning of COVID lockdowns in 2020. The question resolves Yes if the STLFSI4 value is reported to be greater than or equal to 1.75…”

@SaulMunn That's great, thanks!