Nostradamnedus avatar
Nostradamnedus
closed 18 minutes ago
Will Russia begin a new wave of mobilisation during January 2023?
4%
chance

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PS avatar
PS
is predicting NO at 53%

The head of Estonian defense intelligence says that Russia is preparing for a second wave of mobilization, but also that the first wave was never really over (not sure how this would be reflected in the market's resolution, given this comment). FWIW, the one specific piece of evidence he cites does not seem particularly convincing, but he presumably has others as well.

PS avatar
PS
bought Ṁ100 of NO

@kolotom99 However, a week ago, a new wave was said by the UA defense minister to start "in about a week", and by head of military intelligence said "that the new call to the front in Russia might start as early as January 5." That doesn't mean this new claim is wrong, but I think there have been few (if any) good predictions on Russian internal policies.

TomekKolotom avatar
Komet T
bought Ṁ10 of NO

another date:

JeremyK avatar
Aurelius avatar

What counts as a "new wave" exactly? I thought they were already mobilizing?

Nostradamnedus avatar
Nostradamnedus
is predicting NO at 53%

@Aurelius A large increase in the rate of mobilisation (which I believe is zero at the moment).

PS avatar

Ukraine defense chief warns of new Russian mobilization: Moscow plans to close border for men in ‘one week or so,’ Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov says.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-defense-chief-oleksii-reznikov-warn-russia-mobilization/

wadimiusz avatar

Is a formal declaration of a new wave of mobilisation required for this to resolve YES?

Nostradamnedus avatar
Nostradamnedus
is predicting NO at 29%