Will Putin be the leader of Russia during the entire 2022?
Politics•Ukraine-Russia war•Russia•Global Macro•Putin Life Insurance
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579
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES

Resolves NO, if at some point during 2022 Vladimir Putin stops being the ruler of Russia. Also resolves NO if there is somehow no Russia or more than one Russia and at least one of them is Putin-less. Resolves YES if nothing weird like that happens by New Year, Moscow time.

Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-12-31 3:59 pm

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bought Ṁ80 of NO

Going off actuarial tables, big no at 98%

predicted NO

@kaskarn Oh no, I read 2023. Cmon vladdy do something crazy

predicted YES

I asked the AI to draw me a picture of Putin getting backstabbed. But instead it got this image of Putin... being possessed by Voldemort... while holding a giant butter knife in one hand and a giant chopstick in another...? And also everything's on fire? I'm not really sure what's going on here.

Vladimir Putin being stabbed by Volodymyr Zelensky
sold Ṁ26 of YES

switching from yes to no because 98% seems pretty high for something like "a world leader of a nation currently undergoing significant strife lasts another 3 months".

Definitely put the odds above, say, 90% or whatever, though.

@Adam looking pretty smart getting out at 98% :P

bought Ṁ5 of YES
₽
bought Ṁ50 of YES
arb
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Yevhenii Diomidov
bought Ṁ10 of NO
If he upgrades his title from President to Emperor or Tsar, he is still the "leader". If someone else becomes president, that's a NO.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
What happens if Putin is no longer President? Is he still the "leader" if he is seen as still controlling Russia in some way?
bought Ṁ23 of YES
I accidentally hit the wrong button haha. But I guess I'll accidentally hedge my bets
bought Ṁ1 of NO
This is the inverse of https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/will-putin-be-overthrown-during-202

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