Who will leave the UK.gov Cabinet next?
Michael Gove
Alex Chalk
Gillian Keegan
Grant Shapps
Oliver Dowden
Mark Harper
Michelle Donelan
Kemi Badenoch
James Cleverly
Jeremy Hunt
David Cameron
Rishi Sunak

Cabinet members as per https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

On the day any member of cabinet resigns, is fired, dies, or otherwise ceases to hold a position in cabinet, the close date will update to midnight of that day. After close, this market will resolve YES to all cabinet members who have left on that day and NO to all who retain any cabinet position.

Being promoted to another cabinet position does not count as leaving.

If all cabinet members are replaced simultaneously e.g. at a general election then it will resolve YES for all cabinet members.

If this market reaches the original close date with nobody leaving cabinet then it will be extended by a year.

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bought Ṁ10 Michelle Donelan YES

So if no cabinet members resign during the next 6 weeks of general election campaign (and Labour win) then these all resolve YES? Because... well, I'm putting some mana on that outcome.

sold Ṁ7 Michelle Donelan NO

@Tomoffer Correct, this is now a race between any member leaving and the election leading to some or all of them leaving cabinet.

NoitboughtṀ5Gillian Keegan YES

Keegan: ‘I’d have punched Ofsted inspector’


Another great week for cabinet covering themselves in glory.

NoitsoldṀ3Kemi Badenoch YES

If you’re on Donelan or Badenoch watch, maybe consider betting on this market too

Anyone else on Badenoch watch?

bought Ṁ10 Kemi Badenoch YES

Simon Clarke’s resignation does not trigger closure here. Does this one lead to a cabinet member resigning though? Update your positions!

Tonight’s two resignations are not cabinet members and so do not trigger this market to close. Might be a good time to check your positions if you think more are to come, though!

Does this include being fired?

Interesting potential outcomes for this one. If this is an election cabinet and we’re heading towards an early election, every person in this list will resolve 100% if the party loses the election.

If this is a stability cabinet to try and push elections out as far as possible, it’s quite likely only one or two might resolve 100%.

@Noit lol I really need to learn to read descriptions before betting