This refers to the next general election to take place electing representatives to the UK parliament following December 2019.
Market resolves 100% to the party with the winning candidate.
Please submit answers in the form of a political party, not an individual. If you wish to submit an individual who will run as an independent, please submit your answer in the form: 'Independent: [person's name]'. If anybody submits 'Independent' as an answer, it will not resolve YES, even if an independent wins.
'Labour' and 'Labour and Co-operative' will be treated interchangeably.
I may bet in this market.
The forecast aggregator has this down as a conservative win across most models: https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/constituencies/E14001386/
Is there a reason why this market has gone in a very different direction?
Party Britain Predicts Economist Electoral Calculus FT More in Common Survation YouGov
con 28% 35% 34% 32% 36% 29% 39%
lab 25% 29% 22% 26% 23% 35% 25%
lib 15% 14% 26% 19% 22% 17% 20%
ref 17% 8% 12% 13% 9% 11% 9%
grn 10% 10% 5% 7% 9% 7% 6%
oth 5% 3% 1% 3% 0% 2% 1%Reform are expected to perform well too so I'm surprised other is so low when lib dem is so high