Did he release the paper early to ensure his own Nobel Prize? Will the Nobel committee look poorly on that? Will it matter in any decisions they make? Resolves YES if Kwon Young-Wan is a Nobel recipient by market close.
Will only resolve NO in advance of closure if
there is an official statement from the Nobel committee that Kwon Young-Wan Will be specifically excluded from ever receiving a prize.
Kwon Young-Wan dies before close date, in which case it will close when the following Nobel prices are awarded to ensure he has not been awarded posthumously (resolves YES if he is awarded the Nobel posthumously).
1,000
3.00@EvanDaniel Yes, the close date is a backstop for the Nobel being awarded and I will resolve NO if he doesn’t have the prize by that date. I would not extend the date unless some unforeseen circumstances meant the 2043 prizes were delayed or otherwise unclear for some reason.
Good question about living recipients, a quick Google suggests that you can’t be nominated posthumously but you can be awarded the prize posthumously if you die between announcement and award.
To maintain the spirit of the question, if Kwon Young-Wan dies before market close then I think it’s fairest to await the next round of Nobel prizes to confirm that he has not been awarded, and then the question can resolve NO early. If he does fall into that small camp of posthumous awards then the question will resolve YES.
@BarrDetwix I’m not sure. Is there any history of a Nobel prize being awarded in a “split” way, e.g. contributor A getting a prize two years before contributor B?
If there’s no history of that then I’d feel fairly comfortable saying I’d resolve NO if two or more other LK-99 contributors got a prize while Young/Wan did not.
@Noit I'm not aware of any such history. Usually later Nobels are awarded for work that builds on the original work meaningfully.