Will a UK General Election be held with a polling date between 1st July and 30th September 2023?
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@Fion they're two slightly different markets. This one is for q3, the one you linked is for the whole of 2023, so the latter should always have a slightly higher probability.
@Bdog yes, sorry, I should have explained what I meant. When I saw this market it was higher than the 2023 one so I bought NO here and sold it in the 2023 one. Personally I think I could have gone further. I left it so that Q3 was 4% and 2023 was 6%.
So yeah, you can't arbitrage the two markets to the same percentage but there are some combinations that are clearly not rational.
(I'm also a bit interested in how this interacts with interest rates. Probably both markets are too high because the true probability is so close to 0 that the returns on investment aren't great.)