New market is up! Hopefully closure won’t be triggered within the next 24 hours. Uses the new “many answers” format so there should be much less mucking about with answer shares.

https://manifold.markets/Noit/who-will-leave-the-ukgov-cabinet-ne-0230dabd3759?r=Tm9pdA

Very fun market thank you!

It seems like stuff is still ongoing but I’m not predicting any further changes to this, so I’m signing off for the night. Assuming nothing happens overnight this will resolve in a four way split Braverman / Hands / Quin / Coffey tomorrow.

I reckon the big announcements are behind us. Tentatively putting my mana on a four-way split.

Glen gets Quin's old job (source: BBC)

Hands is now Business and Trade minister, is that a cabinet position or not? It’s not clear if he’s taken the SoS role from Badenoch.

@Noit "Minister of State" so probably not Cabinet grade.

Very relieved this cabinet didn’t run until a losing election, I’ve just realised this would involve resolving each person to 1/31 or 3.2%

George Freeman gone, but not a cabinet minister so no impact here

Added John Glen and Greg Hands, both of whom have had their jobs handed to other people but have not yet been announced to have other cabinet jobs, so may well be also gone.

Hmm, can I buy NO to push someone down to 33%? Will I get any payout?

@JoshuaWilkes I think so? But buying NO is equal to buying YES in every other person in the market and so you might be better off targeting YES than NO.

Yeah, I have YES all over the place 😉

It's a question more out of curiosity

Coffey now gone, this market would resolve 50% Braverman 50% Coffey if no further ministers are out. I’m thinking there may still be more to come.

Just for my own notes later: Nick Gibb, Neil O’Brien, and Will Quince aren’t cabinet ministers and don’t count towards the totals. As of this moment we’d be resolving 100% Braverman, although I’m expecting Coffey to go which would result in a 50% / 50% split assuming nothing further.

@Noit Jesse Norman also goes on the “doesn’t impact this market” list.

@Noit what about Quin?

@LasseRasinen He’s on the cabinet list, he counts and I’ve separated him out. So now we’re at 33% for each of Braverman, Coffey and Quin

Now that I’ve actually bothered reading the resolution criteria I think further volatility and reshuffling is seriously underpriced in this market. I like this format but the new multiple choice one will be very straightforward!

Close date updated to midnight, place your bets and remember that this question resolves equally amongst all ministers who leave today (next time I will be using the new multi-answer, multi-resolution format for this market).

Teased reshufffle does not seem immediately forthcoming, so I have created a market to try and identify when it will happen. https://manifold.markets/Noit/when-will-the-next-ukgov-cabinet-re?r=Tm9pdA

When will the next UK.GOV cabinet reshuffle take place?

Resolves YES to the calendar month during which the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom officially announces and implements a cabinet reshuffle. A cabinet reshuffle is defined as the event where three or more secretary of state positions are newly appointed, removed, or moved within a two-day period. The resolution will be based on public announcements from official UK government channels or credible national news media reports confirming the reshuffle. If the reshuffle spans two calendar months, the resolution month will be the one in which the reshuffle process began. If no reshuffle occurs in each of the listed calendar months, that month will resolve NO at month end, and a new month will be added. Any changes announced by the UK Prime Minister that do not meet the criteria of a reshuffle as defined above will not trigger the resolution of the market. If a UK General Election takes place before any other reshuffle then the formation of the new government will also resolve that month YES.

Andrew Lansley has suggested Rishi Sunak should sack Jeremy Hunt in the next reshuffle in an interview with Sky’s Sophy Ridge.

I cannot fathom the idea of sacking your chancellor days before or after publishing your budget, but what do I know?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/oct/25/keir-starmer-labour-israel-gaza-angela-rayner-pmqs-rishi-sunak-conservatives-peter-bone-uk-politics-live?page=with:block-653936168f08fea9e14da299#block-653936168f08fea9e14da299

Starmer holds ‘constructive’ meeting with Labour MPs over party’s position on Israel and Gaza– UK politics live

Labour seeks to downplay the gathering as an informal one between Labour leader and MPs amid tension within the party

Mark Harper

@CromlynGames Good shout, could be a HS2 scapegoat. Added!

Politico Playbook is teasing a reshuffle before the budget (7th November), if true this market will definitely close in the next couple of weeks! https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/cabinet-and-commons-talk-middle-east/

Cabinet and Commons talk Middle East

What's driving the day in Westminster. Politics and policymaking in the UK capital.