Which party will win the Runcorn and Helsby by-election?
20
1.1kṀ15k
resolved May 2
100%68%
Reform
0.1%
Conservative
32%
Labour
0.1%
No by-election held this parliament
0.2%
Liberal Democrats
0.3%Other

Which party will win the by-election in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency, following the sentencing of Mike Amesbury MP

Resolves “No by-election held this parliament” if there is no by-election before the next general election. Otherwise resolves to the party which takes the most votes and so fields an MP to parliament.

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If you've enjoyed this by-election market, why not follow and / or bet on Which UK Constituencies will see By-Elections in the 2024 (59th) Parliament? so that you can get advanced warning on where the next election will be? Every time a by-election is confirmed I will alert traders on that market.

Or, why not consider how this impacts next election? I've got a whole dashboard for that.

Reform win by six votes. Jesus Christ, that’s close.

oh boy

Just for reference I’m not staying up to watch results come in, you can have your resolution when I’m woken up assuming we have a result, which I think is due around 3am.

Good luck folks!

@Riley0RgZ gonna get hosed. Should have exited the market many days ago. Forgot I was in. Fair dos

filled a Ṁ5 YES at 1.0% order

Independent candidate has his site up, with very little info other than you can play him at chess on chess.com.

British democracy never fails to surprise me.

Constituency polling from Lord Ashcroft puts Reform at a slight lead.

Britain Elects report on the upcoming by-election, agreeing with current betting that it's 60%-ish in favour of Labour. Noting that the by-election will most likely be the same day as May local elections, I have updated the closing date to match close of polls.

Mike Amesbury is standing down, so the only thing stopping this by-election happening would be a surprise general election.

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 65% order
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