The next UK budget is due to be held on October 30th. Which of the above statements will be true about what is unveiled on budget day?
When resolving the "$tax increase" options:
I will resolve YES if:
The % rate of tax goes up (i.e. paying more)
The threshold at which it is paid goes down (i.e. more people pay / pay more)
If the tax is changed such that there are winners and losers (e.g. an increase in % rate but also an increase in threshold) then I will resolve 50%.
I will resolve NO if:
The % rate of tax goes down
The threshold at which it is paid goes up
1,000
3.00@AgenticLondoner @cw7954857458
Just tagging the person who proposed the answers and the person who bet YES on one of them.
(As another trader in these answers, one might expect me to have some understanding of what they mean, but of course I do not, for I was just betting NO on everything...)
@Noit should have resolved YES:
To help drive the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) the government is strengthening incentives to purchase EVs by widening the differentials in Vehicle Excise Duty First Year Rates between EVs and hybrids or internal combustion engine cars. The government is also maintaining EV incentives in the Company Car Tax regime and extending 100% First Year Allowances for zero emission cars and EV chargepoints for a further year.
@alh ooh, maybe. the second change, as it's maintaining the status quo, but the VED differential might be. Is it a change to non-ICE or is it a change to ICE?
@Noit Yep, looks like it's just ICE rates being increased and EV maintained. If EV was also increased but by less than ICE that would still count though, I think.
@Noit Looks like the current first year VED for electric cars is £0 a year, so the new rate of £10 (5.86) would be an increase/change. But is £10 really significant enough to be a change?
@Noit Ah, no change after all. The £10 was already announced by the previous government to take effect next year: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vehicle-tax-for-electric-and-low-emissions-vehicles
@Noit Would anyone argue about resolving this YES? The rate has not gone up, but with pensions and other exemptions removed IHT take will be up.
@Noit I'd argue this should resolve NO (the rates and thresholds have remained the same).
IIRC the market for the currently-exempt categories having IHT imposed was higher than this one, so people were betting on the basis that the loss of additional exemptions wouldn't cause this to resolve YES.
@alh Should resolve YES, as the rate difference decreases from 10% this year to 6% in the 2026-27 tax year.
Lol, @Noit is ahead of BBC news live updates. I'm better off following this market than the actual news. 🤣
@Noit hahaha, called out! Yeah, idk. I feel like there's a lot of options in this market and a lot of them are quite high %. I get that it's the government's first budget, but I feel like budgets don't normally have quite this much in them?
I think there might be a bit of a bias where you hear one option in isolation and you think "yeah, that sounds quite likely" and bet it up, but in fact there might be two or three policies that would have a similar impact and the government will just choose one of them.
Unfortunately I don't really follow the news or social media so I can't really bet on the actual probabilities, so I'm reduced to betting on the market itself.
@ChristopherRandles there’s a separate answer for employer’s NI. If nobody has any complaints I’ll change the NI option to employees NI for clarity?
@alh I can't edit this now, but this should have been Stamp Duty Increase (UK buyers) as Labour had a manifesto commitment to increase this for non-UK buyers (separate answer created)
@alh This has already been reported to be cancelled, but not officially confirmed by the government as far as I can tell. I would expect that the two answers on ISA contribution limit increase/decrease should resolve based on the £20000 limit rather than including the additional £5000 previously announced for the British ISA - that is, the confirmation or cancellation of the British ISA wouldn't affect the resolution of either of these two answers.