By what date will Nintendo release a major Switch 2 hardware revision?
2
1.4kṀ1200
2026
12%
before 2026-07-01 / 1st July 2026
17%
before 2026-10-01 / 1st October 2026
24%
before 2027-01-01 / 1st January 2027
31%
before 2027-04-01 / 1st April 2027
38%
before 2027-07-01 / 1st July 2027
45%
before 2027-10-01 / 1st October 2027
52%
before 2028-01-01 / 1st January 2028
59%
before 2028-04-01 / 1st April 2028
66%
before 2028-07-01 / 1st July 2028
73%
before 2028-10-01 / 1st October 2028
80%
before 2029-01-01 / 1st January 2029
85%
before 2029-04-01 / 1st April 2029
85%
before 2029-07-01 / 1st July 2029
90%
before 2029-10-01 / 1st October 2029

Nintendo has often released revised versions of their consoles during the console's life. The GBA SP followed the GBA, the DS Lite followed the DS, and the Switch Lite followed the Switch. This market will resolve YES if a hardware revision of the Switch 2 is released before the date named in the option, otherwise it will resolve NO.

To clarify what "major hardware revision" means, here are the broad criteria I will be using to smell-test any new product release:

  • Does it play Switch 2 games? If so, points to YES

  • Does Nintendo undertake a traditional marketing campaign for this product specifically? If so, points to YES

  • Is it clearly marketed as a direct successor to the Switch 2, e.g. a Switch 3? If so, points to NO.

  • Are all games playable on the new hardware also playable on the original Switch 2? If so, points to YES.

Basically I'm looking for a Switch 2 Lite or a Switch 2 OLED or similar. A very minor hardware change which is not marketed would not count (e.g. the revised Switch 1 with the better battery).

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy