In 2024 will the Supreme Court of the United States hear any cases involving OpenAI and/or Anthropic?
44
1.1kṀ12k
resolved Jan 24
Resolved
NO
AI
OpenAI
AI Safety
Law
Supreme Court
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ530
2Ṁ75
3Ṁ61
4Ṁ41
5Ṁ21

People are also trading

Will Anthropic have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?
16% chance
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?
20% chance
By the end of 2025, will OpenAI and Anthropic merge?
1% chance
Will the New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft go to Supreme court?
30% chance
When will US Supreme Court hear a case on AI legal personhood?
2041
Will the U.S. Government sue OpenAI for violating antitrust laws by 2030?
63% chance
Will OpenAI lose a class-action copyright-related lawsuit before 2028?
60% chance
Will either OpenAI or Anthropic move their main operations away from the US by EOY 2029?
12% chance
Will Anthropic have a major conflict involving its unique corporate structure similar to OpenAI before 2030?
53% chance
Will the Supreme Court rule on a case relating to the copyright status of AI model outputs before 2028?
55% chance
Sort by:

@NoaNabeshima will this resolve?

Does "hear" mean granting cert or would some other action by SCOTUS resolve YES?

@Noah1 https://chat.openai.com/share/46d73fa0-73d9-4134-bcb4-43b4fddb104e

I don't know much about how SCOTUS works. Tentatively I'm interpreting the question as more specifically "Will a Supreme Court hearing, with oral arguments, involving OpenAI and/or Anthropic in a nontrivial way, begin in 2024?"

I care more about reasonable interpretations of the original text of the question, not about what I intended the question to be at the time. If anyone thinks this operationalization is unreasonable, or there are other more reasonable operationalizations, or you interpreted it in a different reasonable way, or it is still importantly underspecified, please let me know.

I'm not sure where the threshold for involved in a nontrivial should be, for example.

https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/27/24016212/new-york-times-openai-microsoft-lawsuit-copyright-infringement

People are also trading

Will Anthropic have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?
16% chance
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?
20% chance
By the end of 2025, will OpenAI and Anthropic merge?
1% chance
Will the New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft go to Supreme court?
30% chance
When will US Supreme Court hear a case on AI legal personhood?
2041
Will the U.S. Government sue OpenAI for violating antitrust laws by 2030?
63% chance
Will OpenAI lose a class-action copyright-related lawsuit before 2028?
60% chance
Will either OpenAI or Anthropic move their main operations away from the US by EOY 2029?
12% chance
Will Anthropic have a major conflict involving its unique corporate structure similar to OpenAI before 2030?
53% chance
Will the Supreme Court rule on a case relating to the copyright status of AI model outputs before 2028?
55% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy