• Target Date: August 15, 2026 (local time in Melilla, CET).

• Resolution Sources: Official statements from the Spanish Government Delegation in Melilla (Delegación del Gobierno en Melilla) or reports by reputable Spanish and international news outlets (e.g., RTVE, El País)

• This market will resolve to YES if on August 15, 2026 (including the overnight periods beginning August 14 or ending August 16), there is a coordinated border crossing attempt at the Melilla-Morocco border where:

  1. At least 1,000 people are reported to have attempted to cross the Melilla border fence or checkpoints, OR

  2. At least 200 people are reported to have successfully entered Melilla irregularly on that day.

• NO Resolution: If no such coordinated mass entry or attempt occurs on this date, or if the reported numbers fall below both thresholds, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

In late July 2026, Spain's North African enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla experienced severe migration pressure, highlighted by tens of thousands of migrants crossing into Ceuta and over 1,300 crossing attempts in Melilla. Following these events, viral campaigns on WhatsApp, TikTok, Facebook, and Instagram began circulating calls for a new, coordinated mass border crossing on August 15, 2026. Spanish authorities and the Civil Guard have confirmed the existence of these campaigns and remain on high alert.