🏅 Top traders

from the lovely people at Europe Elects - Konfederacja far far away from this market's 10% threshold.

@sarius

@sarius

https://apnews.com/article/poland-election-vote-720f7b81838c33ccb2865fb3bc6e0414

Poland's election result on a knife edge as opposition leader Donald Tusk claims victory

Poland’s election result is on a knife edge as an exit poll says that the governing Law and Justice party won the most votes.

12/460 seats according to this exit poll

Can anyone Polish tell me what I'm missing here? They are at 9% in the polls, 10% is within the normal error margin. Why is this not rated at 40% or more?

@WieDan historically this party (and the ones connected to it) has had a tendency to fare relatively badly compared to the polls. Also, right-wing parties have been losing support for the past couple of weeks, perhaps the market overreacted on that sentiment.

@PaweKowalski Will high turnout not help them since they have a lot of young supporters?

@WieDan it might be so, similarly high turnout might be indicative of the current ruling party getting a relatively weaker score (they are typically thought to have the most reliable electorate). Seeing the current extraordinary turnout, I'm more willing to agree that this market is too low.

@PaweKowalski It seems that the people with experience knew more than the data :)

.

Well, mine is also related :-)
https://manifold.markets/ArekStryjski/will-anyone-from-polska2050psl-made?r=QXJla1N0cnlqc2tp

Will anyone from Polska2050/PSL make it to the next parliament?

59% chance. Will they go above the coalition threshold to get any seat in the next Polish parliament?

Related: