Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the measured effect size (Cohen's d) of Orexin-A on reaction speed when subjects have had six hours of sleep. The effect size will be determined by comparing reaction times between receiving Orexin-A and receiving placebo, both under conditions of six hours of sleep, in a self-blinded experiment.

Background

Orexin-A (also known as hypocretin-1) is a neuropeptide that plays a key role in regulating wakefulness, arousal, and attention. It is produced by neurons in the hypothalamus and acts on orexin receptors throughout the brain.

Orexin-A has been studied for its potential to counteract the effects of sleep deprivation on cognitive performance. It promotes wakefulness by activating arousal-promoting brain regions and modulating neurotransmitter systems involved in attention and alertness.

Six hours of sleep represents a mild form of sleep restriction compared to the recommended 7-9 hours for adults, which typically results in some cognitive impairment, including slower reaction times.

Considerations

• The effect of Orexin-A specifically on reaction speed under six hours of sleep has not been extensively studied in humans.

• Orexin-A's effects may vary based on administration method (intranasal, intravenous, etc.), dosage, timing relative to sleep, and individual differences in orexin receptor sensitivity.

• Reaction speed can be measured through various tasks (simple reaction time, choice reaction time, psychomotor vigilance task, etc.), which may yield different effect sizes.

• The duration of Orexin-A's effects and potential side effects should be considered when interpreting results.