Will either Brazil or Argentina win the men's Football World Cup in 2022?
58
19
1.1K
resolved Dec 20
Resolved
YES

This question resolves to yes, in case either Argentina or Brazil wins the final of the men's Football World Cup in 2022.

Current date of final is 18th December 2022.

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predicted YES

Resolves Yes

bought Ṁ6 of NO

Probability for Brazil or Argentina in these two markets is below 25%

@jorge Free response markets tend to be a lot less reliable than binary markets

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@Yev in general yes, but with a fixed set of answers (in this case the 32 teams participating) they should converge quickly. Another two related binary markets, that together should add up to almost 1 minus the probability in this market (just have subtract the chances that Uruguay/Ecuador wins). They also imply that this market should be below 30%

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