This prediction will resolve as “Yes” if, between 2023-01-01 and 2023-12-31, at least 100,000 additional Russian soldiers are mobilized, as confirmed by reliable third-party sources such as NATO, the UN, the US State Department, or the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The mobilization must be specifically related to the war in Ukraine, rather than the regular 12-month conscription that happens every year. This confirmation must be verifiable and come from a reliable source, not just from Russian government sources, in order for the prediction to resolve as “Yes.” The prediction will resolve as “No” if the above criteria are not met. If there is a lack of consensus on how many soldiers were mobilized during 2023, this market will resolve as 'N/A'.
For context, ~300k soldiers were mobilized by Russia in 2022.
UPDATE/CLARIFICATION:
- Note that the soldiers explicitly have to "mobilized", so "volunteers"/"kontraktniki" are excluded.
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Added a 2024 question: https://manifold.markets/nsokolsky/will-russia-mobilize-at-least-100k-7b10d4ccb93b
Duplicate question: https://manifold.markets/ArtyomK/will-there-be-second-wave-of-mobili
How strong are they in need of new troops? Looks like it is high. By different estimations, there were about 250 thousands deactivated soldiers (dead or injured) by Sep 2023. Killed by the beginning of May '23, 47 thousands. About 15 thousands killed more by Sep '23. Plus 3x heavily injured. Plus those whose contracts ended. That makes 250 thousand by Sep '23. About 300 thousands there at May '23. Then the Russian military forces wanted to increase personnel with 500 thousands more at Dec '23.
But many of those flew from the country in '22 return to their homes in Russia as the war become stagnant. Still estimations of how many left vary. Some claim about 700 thousands left Russia after the war began.
There seems to be no evidence in favor that Russia gathered enough volunteers to cover the need.
This makes it more plausible that there will be second wave of mobilization. Say higher than 50% that it will be. But it looks like it will be likely that it will spread through months and hidden from public. So it looks like it is unlikely there will be publicly visible wave till the end of 2023. Still from the perspective of some one individual, the probability of their mobilization looks high.
Sources:
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14006/russia-2nd-wave-of-mobilization/
- https://www.forbes.ru/society/478827-rossiu-posle-21-sentabra-pokinuli-okolo-700-000-grazdan
Just to clarify: if suitable sources publish >100k figures about e.g. "Russian force generation", or "recruitment", or "manpower growth", but do not differentiate between conscripts, contractees and mobilized, or do not clarify proportions of these, how does that resolve? (Assuming No, but.)
@mxxun will resolve to No if we don't have data that the new soldiers have been coerced into fighting in Ukraine
https://lenta.ru/news/2023/09/09/kartapolov/ - 200 thousand "volunteers" this year but still no one "mobilized". Changing my vote to a "No".
