Will Russia mobilize at least 100k more soldiers before the end of 2024?
Basic
50
3.3k
2025
42%
chance

This prediction will resolve as “Yes” if, between 2024-01-01 and 2024-12-31, at least 100,000 additional Russian soldiers are mobilized, as confirmed by reliable third-party sources such as NATO, the UN, the US State Department, or the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The mobilization must be specifically related to the war in Ukraine, rather than the regular 12-month conscription that happens every year. This confirmation must be verifiable and come from a reliable source, not just from Russian government sources, in order for the prediction to resolve as “Yes.” The prediction will resolve as “No” if the above criteria are not met. If there is a lack of consensus on how many soldiers were mobilized during 2024, this market will resolve as 'N/A'.

For context, ~300k soldiers were mobilized by Russia in 2022. No soldiers were mobilized in 2023 (see last years question).

- Note that the soldiers explicitly have to "mobilized", so "volunteers"/"kontraktniki" are excluded.

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