Resolution Criteria
The subquestions below will resolve as Yes if, before the listed date, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) announces that another wave of mobilization is underway in Russia. A mobilization qualifies so long as it mobilizes reservists or conscripts, not volunteers, and ISW characterizes it as officially recognized by the Russian government. For example, a "partial mobilization" would qualify while so-called "crypto-mobilization" or "self-mobilization" would not. ISW asserting that an unacknowledged mobilization is underway or has occurred would not qualify.
Fine Print
If the Institute for the Study of War writes that the next wave of mobilization has not only begun, but has already ended, then this also resolves as Yes.
ISW will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, if ISW ceases to publish the relevant updates this question resolves as Ambiguous. Metaculus will determine appropriate resolution based on its assessment of ISW's publications, and may resolve this question as Ambiguous in the event the published information is unclear.
1,000
3.00How strong are they in need of new troops? Looks like it is high. By different estimations, there were about 250 thousands deactivated soldiers (dead or injured) by Sep 2023. Killed by the beginning of May '23, 47 thousands. About 15 thousands killed more by Sep '23. Plus 3x heavily injured. Plus those whose contracts ended. That makes 250 thousand by Sep '23. About 300 thousands there at May '23. Then the Russian military forces wanted to increase personnel with 500 thousands more at Dec '23.
But many of those flew from the country in '22 return to their homes in Russia as the war become stagnant. Still estimations of how many left vary. Some claim about 700 thousands left Russia after the war began.
There seems to be no evidence in favor that Russia gathered enough volunteers to cover the need.
This makes it more plausible that there will be second wave of mobilization. Say higher than 50% that it will be. But it looks like it will be likely that it will spread through months and hidden from public. So it looks like it is unlikely there will be publicly visible wave till the end of 2023. Still from the perspective of some one individual, the probability of their mobilization looks high. So I bet 10 on Yes.
Sources:
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14006/russia-2nd-wave-of-mobilization/
- https://www.forbes.ru/society/478827-rossiu-posle-21-sentabra-pokinuli-okolo-700-000-grazdan
